Dougie’s FAT Friday Mailbag

Apr

LOPEZ VS. PENALOSA

Hey Doug,
I'm usually not one to make bold predictions about upcoming bouts, mainly due to the highly unpredictable nature of this beautifully violent sport of ours, but this one time I must get it off my chest.

JuanMa Lopez stops Gerry Penalosa in six rounds or less. That's it, I've said it! I will gladly eat crow on Monday if I'm completely wrong.

– Jermain Taylor beats Carl Froch narrowly on points. His greater aggressiveness should carry the day.

– Lamont Peterson/Willy Blain should b……..zzzzzzzzzzz. Sorry, I fell asleep. Peterson should win on points (what else?) though.

Peace! — Bim

I don’t blame anyone for picking Lopez to win but I’m a little surprised at how many hardcore fans feel certain that JuanMa can KO Penalosa, a veteran’s veteran who has never been down or out in a 62-bout pro career that spans 20 years.

I guess there’s a first time for everything, but I think Penalosa makes it past six rounds. I can see him taking Lopez the distance. I think if Lopez doesn’t take his opponent our in the first three rounds, he backs off a bit and relies more on his boxing skill to win the fight (and there’s nothing wrong with that). But we’ll see. If Lopez KOs Penalosa he’s arguably the hardest puncher in the sport, pound for pound.

I also like Taylor on points but I see Froch as the more aggressive of the two super middleweights. If Taylor tries to make a dog fight, he might get dogged. I think Taylor wins with superior skill and athleticism.

Peterson-Blain is a tough pick. Blain is a very smooth boxer with good footwork and fast hands. However, Peterson’s defensive shell and harder punching (compared to Blain) should give him the edge.

MIXED THOUGHTS

What's good Dougie,
Nonito Donaire couldn't look more impressive than he did against Raul Martinez. His style, skills, and power are great and fun to watch, the feinted right and left hookercut… Beautiful. Not to mention he's a huge flyweight, he looked at least a division bigger than “El Cobrita”. Vic Darchinyan would be more competitive in a rematch, but he'd get stopped. Donaire-Montiel will be an excellent fight if it comes off, a toss up. Brian Viloria was a nice surprise, he took a ton of body shots, borderline low and low blows, but was still fresh enough to have good movement and throw solid combos late. His team wasn't blowing smoke when they were talking about a different training camp.

“I believe his jab and right hand will find the Englishman's face all night” (from your Tuesday Mailbag) are exactly my sentiments on Froch-Taylor. Why fight with your hands down if you aren't fast? Jean Pascal pasted him with right hands and he wasn't even looking on some, Taylor is gonna hit him more often and probably harder. And with the holding tactic JT's added in his last couple fights, there will be little return fire and less chance of Jermain fading. Taylor UD, possible late stoppage.

I'd also be very impressed if Lopez can knockout Penalosa, but Gerry is a pro and hasn't been out of the gym since this fight was first talked about. His conditioning, chin, and ring smarts and tactics will allow him to go the distance; he won't be getting hit too many times by that right hook. Lopez UD.

Tough break for James Kirkland, can't help but think this is payback for that Anne Wolfe segment on Real Sports. Hope they let him keep fighting; do you have any info on what GBP is planning on doing?

Did Sycuan and Top Rank complete the Joan Guzman co-promotion deal? Two fights in a couple months would be great for him and then top it off with a schooling of “your son” at the end of the year.

Love the mailbags man, it's become a habit to check for them, like you sprinkle visual crack on them, lol. I guess next time you go see Mickey and co. you're gonna need to put on some SPF 45 and a hat. Good luck Doug, one. — Hector

It will be a while before I go back to Disneyland. The Happiest Place on Earth for me is anywhere boxing on TV or happening live.

I don’t know if Top Rank and Sycuan made that deal regarding Guzman. I hope so. I want to see him fight Valero. And yes, I think “my son” beats the talented Dominican. Why? As much as Guzman is ballyhooed for his defensive prowess (and Valero is ridiculed for supposedly having “no defense”), “my son” gets hit less than Guzman does in his fights. I thought Guzman clearly beat Jorge Barrios but that crude Argentine put hands on Guzman in the second half of their fight. The entire right side of Guzman’s head was swollen from taking so many lefts. I think Valero would have trouble early but then adjust and walk him down, maybe even score a late stoppage, but definitely beat him. Anyway, that’s just one man’s extremely biased opinion.

I feel bad for Kirkland and even worse for Wolfe. Golden Boy hasn’t made an official statement yet, but what can they do? Kirkland’s ass is on a hook. What’s the deal with Texans and their guns?

I also like Lopez by unanimous decision tomorrow night. Penalosa will make it close, interesting, or bring out the best in JuanMa.

I would be surprised if Taylor knocked out Froch but I think the same version that fought Kelly Pavlik in their rematch and outclassed Jeff Lacy beats the Brit on points in a good fight.

Bring on Calderon vs. Viloria and Montiel vs. Donaire. The winners of those bouts deserve to be in the pound for pound top 10.

Robert Garcia has done a great job rebuilding Viloria’s fighting identity. He’s a future trainer of the year in my not-so-humble opinion.

EAST VS. WEST

So who do you really think is going to win Dougie, Pacquiao or Hatton? I'm about to send out an e-mail to about 8 to 10 people I know to say that I'm taking Manny and anybody that wants to be me $100….come on down!!!…Manny should win this one…right? — Richard

He should but I hope he’s not as overconfident as his fans, and I hate to say it, his trainer, sounds. Hatton should present a tougher fight than De La Hoya or David Diaz did. I think it’s a fight Pacquiao could lose if he isn’t focused. However, I think he will show up at least 85% and that should be enough to beat Hatton. I like Pacquiao by UD or late stoppage.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

Hey Dougie,
Keep up the great work – I am glad “The Ring” has not tainted you… yet! A few random questions for you.

First, I've been watching 24/7, and at least in the footage of training that they show, Hatton does these drills where he throws 10-12 punch combos, whereas Pacman gives a few shots and moves. Is that just a reflection of their styles? And why wouldn't The Pac practice that, as well?

Second – can't decide what I think of the Haye-Klitschko fight. The image of Sanders drilling Wladimir just keeps popping up. Do you think there is a good chance Haye will come out aggressive and just close his eyes and throw? I feel like he could even try the Glen Johnson v. Roy Jones strategy, just keep up the insane pressure for a round or two and see if Wlad will fold (which he will). I know it's much easier said than done, but no one has really attempted to go in real aggressive like that. What do you think?

Finally, haven't seen your ponytail lately – I can't afford PPVs and you no longer have a weekly show. Is there anything like that in the pipeline for you guys?

Thanks – enjoy the weekend's fights.

(PS. It's not always easy to be a boxing fan, but this year has been phenomenal. Let's just hope the trend continues, and recognize when things are good.) — B
I think it’s been an excellent year for the sport and we are not even half way through yet. I’m sure the fall will have some great matchups for us all to enjoy.

Yes, a regular original boxing show is coming soon to RingTV.com, and yes, I will be on it, and yes, I still have a pony tail.

I favor Klitschko in the Haye showdown. The British bomber isn’t a 6-foot-5 southpaw with deceptively quick hands like Cory Sanders and I don’t think he’s got an iron chin like Glen Johnson that would enable him to keep constant pressure on the bigger man. I’m not saying that he doesn’t have a puncher’s chance (or even more than that) — DaVarryl Williamson once put Wladdy on the deck — but I think he’s going to have a tough time getting past Klitschko’s jab and sneaky left hook. If he gets caught with one good right hand, the fight is over.

Also, I wish someone would pull David aside and tell him that T-shirt he’s been wearing at the press conferences with him holding the heads of the Klitschko brothers and their bloody decapitated bodies sprawled out on a ring canvas is disgusting and in really bad taste.

What you see on 24/7 is not a reflection of the fighter’s styles. It’s a reflection of what the producer of the series wants to show and of how the trainers work mitts with their fighters. Mayweather Sr. goes for speed and volume. Roach tries to instill accuracy and power. However, in an actual fight, Pacquiao generally throws more punches than Hatton does.

I’m glad you think THE RING hasn’t “tainted” me. I hope I haven’t “tainted” THE RING.

JUANMA VS. GERRY

Dear Mr. Fischer,
As always, I love your mailbag and appreciate the accessibility that you and your colleagues at the Ring give to readers. William Detloff and Mike Rosenthal deserve kudos for giving readers that same level of contact. I really appreciate that as a fan and wanted to say thanks.

As per usual, my focus is on the Boricuas in Boxing.

To start, I thought Juan Manuel Lopez's chances against Penalosa were looking really good until I found out Penalosa's trained by Freddie Roach. Now I'm thinking this match will be even. Any thought's on Juanma's chances? Do you think the winner of the fight will get to face up against Celestino “watch out for that body shot” Caballero or Ring Champ Israel Vasquez?

I see that Eric Morel finally got himself lined up for a title shot, but am a little bummed out it's going to be against Montiel. Both fighters are among my favorites to watch, with a decent amount of skill and punching power. At the same time, I'm spooked that if Morel loses this fight he'll lose “contender” status and move down to “fringe contender” or “gatekeeper”. Any thoughts on this matchup?

How awesome that Ramon “Rocky” Martinez has a belt?! He loves to win by knockout and isn't afraid to get knocked down himself in the process. I don't see him winning the true championship outright, but will continue to enjoy his fights as he's just that fun to watch. Any idea who's on the horizon for this power puncher?

Oh, and thanks for sticking up for the Iron Boy in your last column. Calderon may not be A knockout artist, but the man can box! I understand the passion fans have for seeing knockouts, but I for one love to see a good technician outmaneuver and totally school his opponent.

Final note: Now that both fighters are retired I can say it: De La Hoya won that fight against Tito though it may cost me my “Puerto Rican Card” for writing those very words. Even still, I think Tito was overall better than DLH, but only by a hair.

Sincerely. — Enrique Fern├índez Roberts

Wow. Are you sure you want me to post this with your first and last name? I thought De La Hoya won that rather forgettable fight by a point (6-5-1 in rounds). Both Trinidad and De La Hoya are so accomplished I don’t see any reason to rank one over the other. You can make a valid argument for either fighter being slightly better.

Calderon is actually fun to watch provided he’s in with a relentless pressure fighter or a good puncher (or both). A fight with Brain Viloria would be interesting because of Viloria’s hand speed and power.

Martinez can fight any top 130-pound contender and be in a fight of the year candidate. I’d like to see him go up against Robert Guerrero.

I give Morel a good shot at springing the upset against Montiel. He’s looked excellent at 118 pounds; stronger, more elusive without running, and he seems more confident than ever. I think he can take Montiel’s power and give the Mexican fits with his counter punching.

I favor JuanMa in tomorrow’s showdown even though Gerry has Roach in his corner. I think it will be a good fight but youth should prevail. But whoever wins will no doubt avoid Caballero and push for an immediate shot at the champ, Izzy Vazquez, who I hear has been cleared to begin training again.

Dougie can be reached at [email protected]