FINAL THOUGHTS ON CANELO-GGG2

Hi Doug,

It’s been a while since I wrote in, so I thought I’d send you my thoughts on this weekend’s big event.

I am wondering if Canelo being smaller means he wants less mass to increase his stamina meaning he won’t tire in the later rounds? I don’t think ring rust will be a factor for Canelo, and obviously being a year older helps him and hurts Golovkin. Ultimately, I see both fighters fighting along the same lines of the first fight, but Golovkin won’t be as tense in the opening rounds this time which will be enough for him to win a close decision. I am going to say it will be a majority decision in favor of GGG but wouldn’t not be shocked if Canelo won (either because it’s in Las Vegas or because he was actually the better man).

This is one of my favorite PPV undercards that I can remember, and I am going to go with Munguia by KO, Chocolatito by TKO, and Lemieux by KO in what should be a fun set of fights.

Enjoy the fights Doug and keep up the great work. Thanks. – Robert from Ashton, MD

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Robert.

I agree with your main event prediction and I also think this PPV undercard is quality. I think Jaime Munguia will go some quality rounds with Brandon Cook before stopping the game Canadian late. I see my man Chocolatito having a hard time with Moises Fuentes before scrapping himself back to form and either scoring a late stoppage or going the full 10 rounds (winning a decision). And I think – like a lot folks – that Lemmy vs. Spike could steal the show in terms of sheer sustained action. Lemieux is going to have to hurt O’Sullivan early and bust up the Irish middleweight’s face in order to earn the victory, in my opinion. I’d be surprised if he iced Spike with one good power shot (at least during the first half of the bout). I won’t be totally shocked if this one goes the distance. And I won’t be surprised if O’Sullivan – who’s got a lot of confidence and career momentum with his six-bout win streak – pulls off the upset.

I am wondering if Canelo being smaller means he wants less mass to increase his stamina meaning he won’t tire in the later rounds? We’ll see. I think being leaner and lighter will result in faster hands and more fluid combinations (which could encourage a higher punch output). I think Canelo’s less bulky physique should mostly benefit him, but the drawbacks could include a decrease in strength and punch resistance.

I don’t think ring rust will be a factor for Canelo, and obviously being a year older helps him and hurts Golovkin. Maybe, but I think Golovkin having a full camp and a fight on May 5, while Canelo sat out for a year, give him the edge in activity, which could mean better timing and reflexes early in the rematch.

Ultimately, I see both fighters fighting along the same lines of the first fight, but Golovkin won’t be as tense in the opening rounds this time which will be enough for him to win a close decision. That’s how I see it.

I am going to say it will be a majority decision in favor of GGG but wouldn’t not be shocked if Canelo won (either because it’s in Las Vegas or because he was actually the better man). Same here.

CLASH OF THE TITANS

Hi Doug,

Well, two major fights on the near horizon; Canelo/GGG & Joshua/Povetkin. First, what do you think on Canelo/GGG? I guess I am looking for GGG to give his all to prevent another bad call by the judges.

How about Joshua/Povetkin? I really think Povetkin may have a pretty good chance in the early rounds. He may be the best Joshua has faced though he is nearly 40. What do you think?

I am also looking forward to Jarrell Miller’s next fight. I think Miller is underrated. Can’t think of anyone who takes a punch like he does and doesn’t even blink! He is also very fast for a big guy. Defense is good and seem always in good condition. Hope he gets a fight with either Wilder, Joshua, Ortiz or Fury soon. Keep up the good work – love your column. Wish it was more than twice a week! – Mike

Thanks for the kind words, Mike, but it’s all I can do just to put the column out twice a week. (I’ve still got this week’s Ring Ratings Update on the back burner…)

Miller should be too big and fresh for faded veteran Tomasz Adamek. After his Oct. 6 DAZN debut, I’d like to see him share the ring with a fellow top-10 contender (such as Ortiz or Dillian Whyte). If he can beat that guy, then sure, I wouldn’t mind seeing him share the ring with title-claimants (Joshua, Wilder and Fury). I agree that Big Baby has fast hands for a 300 pounder, as well as a very solid set of whiskers. His defense is quality but I can’t help but think his stamina would be better if he was about 30 pounds lighter.

First, what do you think on Canelo/GGG? I think it’s a matchup of the two best middleweights, the two biggest stars of the division and two of the sport’s most recognizable figures. They’re evenly matched (in terms of experience and physical attributes), they’re styles mesh well, and they don’t like each other. In other words, I think it’s a huge event and that will result in another compelling fight.

I guess I am looking for GGG to give his all to prevent another bad call by the judges. You are certainly not alone.

How about Joshua/Povetkin? I think it’s a quality heavyweight title bout. The Russian veteran is dangerous, but I favor the youth, size and technique of AJ.

I really think Povetkin may have a pretty good chance in the early rounds. We’ll see.

He may be the best Joshua has faced though he is nearly 40. What do you think? I still think Wladimir Klitschko is the best Joshua has faced as a pro, but Povetkin is the biggest threat AJ has faced since defeating the future hall of famer.

RETURN OF CHOCOLATITO AND GGG’S REVENGE

Hey Doug, can’t wait for the big fight card tomorrow. I’ll get right into it.

Even though I felt in the aftermath of Chocolatito-Sor Rungvisai 2 that Roman would be better off calling it a career, I find myself really looking forward to his return. He’s such a great fighter and a great guy, it would be nice to see him end his career on a few wins.

Who knows, maybe he just needed some time off. I just hope as long as he’s staying in the game he fights guys closer to his size. Some of these superflys are quite big, he probably shouldn’t fight a top fighter that’s bigger than a natural flyweight.  This game is unforgiving, and father time is especially hard on guys who fight like Choco (ain’t that why we love him though.)

As for Canelo Golovkin, I think we’re in for a great fight–GGG will likely have a greater sense of urgency and I think he’ll risk getting countered upstairs in order to hammer Canelo’s body early. The other big x factor for me is Canelo’s new slimmer frame. At this point I have no clue if he cheated or not; I didn’t think he’d submit to a hair test but he did–but then he tried to refuse to partake in the WBC clean boxing program, plus his senior trainer appeared to admit in the HBO 24/7 that he knew about the tainted meat problem in Mexico beforehand, but then in the next scene Canelo said he was unaware…seems like something a trainer might take the time to notify his fighter about?

But so now Canelo is slimmer; however, this isn’t at all proof of his guilt. He may have just wanted to reduce muscle to have more oxygen and to be even quicker. That would make sense as a game plan since Canelo won his rounds boxing GGG; pivoting, moving, and using his hand speed. What bit him in the ass was that he couldn’t sustain a consistent punch output, and his defense got leaky as he got more tired (presumably from running from GGG’s pressure.)

Anyways, regardless if Canelo cheated or if he was just incredibly careless, he’s just come off as a huge diva and I hate the way his team has jerked GGG around in the negotiation process of the rematch. (He’s the one who messed up, not Golovkin.) Here’s hoping GGG can put him away tomorrow. I think he’ll make the adjustments to do just that. – Jack E.

I see another hotly contested distance fight, Jack, but I could be wrong. I agree that Canelo has become the biggest diva in the sport, but I can live with it as long he’s fighting the best fighters in the sport – and GGG just happens to be the top dog in the middleweight division (as well as No. 1 in The Ring’s Pound for Pound rankings). So, Canelo’s diva antics don’t bug me as much as late-career Miguel Cotto’s or Floyd Mayweather’s “A-side” bulls__t. Win, lose or draw on Saturday, if Canelo goes on to face the likes of the Jermall Charlo, the Jacobs-Derveyanchenko winner, or even Errol Spence Jr. (at a 154-156 catchweight), I’ll be a satisfied fan. Same deal with Golovkin, who I’d love to see battle Charlo, Murata or match wits with the Saunders-Andrade winner.

Even though I felt in the aftermath of Chocolatito-Sor Rungvisai 2 that Roman would be better off calling it a career, I find myself really looking forward to his return. Me too, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little nervous for the future hall of famer.

Photo: Naoki Fukuda

He’s such a great fighter and a great guy, it would be nice to see him end his career on a few wins. That would be glorious, but the reality is that when he steps into the ring with Fuentes tomorrow night it will have been TEN years to the day that he won his first world title (the WBA strawweight belt), and in the nine years between that victory over the excellent Yutaka Niida and his brutal rematch KO loss to the devastating Thai hero, Chocolatito pushed his body beyond its limits. There might not be anything left to give.

Who knows, maybe he just needed some time off. Maybe. I hope that’s the case.

I just hope as long as he’s staying in the game he fights guys closer to his size. Won’t happen. His natural size is probably junior flyweight, but at this stage of his career, he can no longer make 108 pounds. I doubt he could make 112 pounds (flyweight) without severely dehydrating himself.

Some of these superflys are quite big, he probably shouldn’t fight a top fighter that’s bigger than a natural flyweight. I agree but the money fights are at 115 pounds, so that’s likely where he will remain if he’s victorious tomorrow.

This game is unforgiving, and father time is especially hard on guys who fight like Choco (ain’t that why we love him though.) Yes, indeed.

As for Canelo-Golovkin, I think we’re in for a great fight–GGG will likely have a greater sense of urgency and I think he’ll risk getting countered upstairs in order to hammer Canelo’s body early. If he does that, we’re in for an exciting start to the rematch. I don’t think either fighter will continue doing what they are doing (going to the body for GGG; standing and countering in the pocket for Canelo) if they take too many punches. But I hope I’m wrong about that.

The other big x factor for me is Canelo’s new slimmer frame. At this point I have no clue if he cheated or not; I didn’t think he’d submit to a hair test but he did–but then he tried to refuse to partake in the WBC clean boxing program, plus his senior trainer appeared to admit in the HBO 24/7 that he knew about the tainted meat problem in Mexico beforehand, but then in the next scene Canelo said he was unaware…seems like something a trainer might take the time to notify his fighter about? Don’t try to ascertain what these guys know based on 24/7 soundbites. You’re only seeing something like 5% of the original interview, and I seriously doubt that the good folks at HBO were grilling Canelo and the Reynosos like a senior correspondent from 60 Minutes. Canelo stating that he was “unaware” could simply mean that he didn’t know the meat contamination situation is as big a problem as it is in Mexico. Bottom line, bro, we know what was in Canelo’s system because he was VADA tested. He has continued to be VADA tested since February of this year.

But so now Canelo is slimmer; however, this isn’t at all proof of his guilt. He may have just wanted to reduce muscle to have more oxygen and to be even quicker. I think that’s a smart move and I believe that this is the physique he should have had when he fought Chavez Jr. and GGG last year.

That would make sense as a game plan since Canelo won his rounds boxing GGG; pivoting, moving, and using his hand speed. I think most would agree with this.

What bit him in the ass was that he couldn’t sustain a consistent punch output, and his defense got leaky as he got more tired (presumably from running from GGG’s pressure.) Perhaps being as bulky as he was in his upper body also contributed to the arm weariness in the middle-to-late rounds. Maybe slimming down will help him increase his punch volume. However, the stamina issues could just be a mental thing with Canelo. We’ll see.

WHAT IF?

Dougie, my man! Saw you on Canelo vs GGG grand arrival video! I know this will get to you the day before the fight so feeling apropos asking you this now. I know all these “what if” questions sound a bit childish but IF Gennady wins against a very fit and game Canelo with convincing KO, will he go down as one of the very best all-time middleweights? Will he be next to Sugar Ray Robinson (only as a middleweight), Hagler and Monzon? Take care and let’s hope for GGG KO W!! – Artur

Hey Artur. Thanks for watching the Grand Arrivals live stream on RingTV.com.

If Golovkin beats Canelo convincingly (KO or decision), I think he’ll be remembered by most fans and boxing media as the dominant middleweight of the 2010s, and he will have likely cemented his place in the International Boxing Hall of Fame. However, he’ll always have his detractors, who will continue to piss on his resume and dismiss Canelo as a “beefed up” junior middleweight (no pun intended, Alvarez fans). They’ll say he needs to beat Charlo, Jacobs again (if Danny gets past Dereveyanchenko), the Saunders-Andrade winner, etc. It is what it is.

But I don’t see many American fans/media lauding him as an all-time great on par with Robinson, Hagler and Monzon. Fans/media in other part of the world will, but something tells me the U.S. will hold back for whatever reasons. I wouldn’t put GGG in Robinson’s class, but as a middleweight champion, his reign was more consistent and is comparable to Monzon’s and Hagler’s.

STOKED FOR CANELO-GGG2?

First, I must apologize. In my email last week, I said Martinez was robbed vs Salido in the second bout. I meant Salido was robbed. I surely sounded like a fool.

Second, do you find yourself all of a sudden stoked for Canelo-GGG? I am excited, but mainly because the entire card sounds like it will be full of fireworks. I’ll not ask you reveal your pick for G-Canelo and Spike-Lemieux – we need to have something to look forward to in Friday’s bag, right?

Third, this was a good weekend for the fight game. It would have been nice to have a few stoppages thrown in. Do you think Khan gets a fight with Pacman?

And do you think Yordenis Ugas will get his rightful shot at the title? I am ready for some fresh blood thrown in the PBC mix, and Ugas is as ready as anyone at welter.

MM:

Oba Carr vs Porter, Garcia

Simon Brown vs Porter, Garcia

Keep up the good work, and keep knocking down the haters. – Donavan

Ay, the beatings will continue until their morale (and intelligence) improve.

Anyway, I’ll go with Porter by close (maybe unpopular) decision over Carr, “Motor City” over Garcia on points, and Brown over both Porter and Garcia by brutal late stoppage.

In my email last week, I said Martinez was robbed vs Salido in the second bout. I meant Salido was robbed. I surely sounded like a fool. Nah, you’re entitled to your opinion (but I’m glad that you actually believed that “Siri” should have won that fight).

Second, do you find yourself all of a sudden stoked for Canelo-GGG? I’ve been into this rematch for most of the past 12 months. The only times I wasn’t “stoked” was when it looked like the return bout would not be made due to the clenbuterol scandal and egos during the re-negotiating period, and when I was just plain burnt out on talking about it. But now we’re finally close enough to fight night to where I can put all the controversy, complaining and pissing contests between social-media warriors aside and anticipate a truly world-class middleweight matchup.

I am excited, but mainly because the entire card sounds like it will be full of fireworks. I think we will be treated to at least two all-action fights. Given the matchups, it’s possible that all four PPV bouts will be crowd pleasers.

I’ll not ask you reveal your pick for G-Canelo and Spike-Lemieux – we need to have something to look forward to in Friday’s bag, right? Well, it’s Friday, homeboy, so I’m saying GGG by MD, and I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Lemieux-O’Sullivan ends in bloody, hotly contested draw. (I wonder what the betting odds are on that?)

Do you think Khan gets a fight with Pacman? I think it’s possible.

And do you think Yordenis Ugas will get his rightful shot at the title? He won a WBC “semi-final” welterweight title eliminator last Saturday. That’s means he’s going to have to wait awhile, and possibly fight in another elimination bout, before he becomes Porter’s official mandatory. He’s also highly ranked in the IBF. Maybe he can get a shot at that belt sooner.

I am ready for some fresh blood thrown in the PBC mix, and Ugas is as ready as anyone at welter. Ugas is very good. He’s a legit lower-top-10 contender, but beyond “new blood,” the 147-pound division needs it’s beltholders to be more active and fight each other. We need Spence vs. Porter asap. We need the winner to face Keith Thurman. We need the winner of that fight to beat the drums for a showdown with Terence Crawford. The promoter/platform that puts up the most money to host that undisputed welterweight championship (be it PBC/Showtime or Top Rank/ESPN) deserves to showcase it to the world.

Email Fischer at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @dougiefischer