Dougie’s special Saturday mailbag
VIRGIN FIGHT PICKS
Hey man, I've been following you for a long time, but this is my virgin email. I'm really freakin excited about the upcoming fights. Here's my predictions:
1. Miranda vs. Bute – I'm going with consensus here. Lucien Bute will just be too much boxer and have too much athleticism for “Pantera.” I'm picking Bute by lopsided decision, though, like in the fight with Andre Ward.
2. Pavlik vs. Martinez – I'm not exactly sure what the consensus is here, but I like Pavlik. I know speed and slickness are supposed to now be Pavlik's poison, but I've got a hunch it won't work like that. I remember hearing about what Margarito did to a young Martinez, and I realize Pavlik doesn't throw the same high volume, but he throws much, much harder, and I think Pavlik will get to him at some point and stop him before the 9th.
Your thoughts? Also, I really feel terrible about the problems you've been having with “your son.” The guy is just so exciting to watch that I really hope he gets it together. — Tony
Don’t feel bad for Valero. He’s not the nicest guy in the world, plus, I have a feeling he’ll gradually get his act together as the year progresses.
Your predictions are pretty good for a virgin mail bagger. I agree with your picks, although I think the Bute-Miranda fight will be competitive (in fact, I think the titleholder might have to stink it out down the stretch). I believe Miranda’s new trainer Joe Goossen when he says his fighter has improved since the Ward fight.
I also envision a late stoppage victory for Pavlik. I know Martinez’s speed and movement will give the champ problems, but I also think Pavlik’s long jab and high guard will limit the southpaw challenger’s offensive opportunities in the early going. If Pavlik can cut the ring off by the middle rounds, he can do what Margarito did 10 years ago (I covered that fight, by the way). The Mexican mauler wore down Martinez by going to the body and Pavlik’s body punches are devastating.
INCREDIBLE FIGHT NIGHT
Hey Dougie, what's good? What an incredible fight night.
For starters we have Bute vs Miranda. At Super Middleweight there's no denying that Bute's the top dog. Bute = Speed + Power. Though I believe that he will win this fight convincingly by unanimous decision or a premature stoppage. It will be interesting to see how many punches he gets caught with in the process because he has yet to convince everyone about his defence. Chad Dawson would school him at either weight.
Following our brawl in Montreal is a battle for middleweight supremacy. Very difficult to pick a winner in this matchup. Can Pavlik deal with a slick southpaw like Martinez?… Can Martinez deal with the power of Pavlik? The skepticism of Martinez is based on his TKO loss to Margarito… and Pavlik is a super-Margarito. The fight will probably end with Pavlik by KO or Martinez by UD. Who're you picking?
Mosley/Mayweather 24/7 Episode 2 for afters.
By the way, great piece on the Jones Jr vs Hopkins fight. I really enjoyed a week in the shoes of future hall-of-famer Dougie “My Son's Father” Fischer. Why are you not on Ring Theory? The show should have a boxing aficionado like you. Dawson's biggest fan – Akhil, UK
The Ring Theory audio feature has two bona fide boxing aficionados in Eric Raskin and Bill Dettloff and they do great job with the show. They do occasionally have guests (THE RING editor Nigel Collins had been the third man on at least two shows). I’ll be on next week’s show, so how’s that for service?
Thanks for kissing my butt. I can see how guys like Mayweather can get used to it.
I don’t think anyone should be skeptical of Martinez because of a fight he lost 10 years ago. He was 16-0-1 prospect when the Mexican mauler got to his ribcage. He didn’t lose another fight until the Williams bout, which could have gone his way. Tonight’s middleweight title showdown will be tough on both fighters. I think Martinez’s hand speed and footwork will trouble Pavlik, but I also think the middleweight champ will earn a lot of respect with his power and underrated counter-punching ability. I think it will heat up into a fun scrap by the middle rounds and I think Pavlik will be sharp and motivated enough to get Martinez out of there by the championship rounds. But we’ll see. Martinez showed world-class stones and toughness by slugging it out with P-Will for 12 rounds. Maybe he’s strong enough to withstand Pavlik’s best shots and HE’s the guy who closes the show in the late rounds.
Dawson is probably all wrong for Bute but I’d still like to see that fight at 175 pounds. However, you and I shouldn’t look too far into the future. Bute could get clipped my a revamped Miranda tonight and I’m not sleeping on Jean Pascal vs. your boy. Pascal has the speed, reflexes and slightly awkward style to get to Bad Chad’s chin and test like no other 175 pounder has.
CASPER'S FINALLY IN A FIGHT
ha! ice-t/urkel no doubt, with a whole lotta kermit the frog in there too!
messing with ya,,, gotta love haters.
seriously though, big, big fan of the 'bag…
i'm stolked for pavlik/martinez… i've been missing the ghost. i'm going to have to go with pavlik in this one though. i got a ton of respect for sergio and thought he deserved the nod in his bout with p-will, but pavlik's bombs are game changers and when he lands one of those clean, well…
in any event, it ought to be a hell of a fight and a martinez win wouldn't bother me in the least.
full disclosure… i am in no way shape or form a mayweather “nuthugger” as you so aptly call them, but i am going to roll with him. there i said it. i'm a huge mosley fan however and if i'm wrong how awesome is that going to be, because if i am, i see floyd going to sleep after eating to much fist. sugar can throw. that said, you can only pick one and i'm going to have to go with pretty boy (which, by the way, is such a better handle than “money” — check your ego, man). the dude's too slippery and will win a SD or a damn close UD. if he's free with his hands (not going to happen) he wins with a wide UD.
bute walks all over miranda, no?
kessler beats up froch in a great fight is how i'm betting. gotta say, i don't mind cocky p___ks for the most part (see mayweather above), but i'd love to see froch crumpled. not affecting my pick though, as i don't see mikkel putting him in a messy pile, but i do envision him laying the boots, round in round out, to carl. he's gonna eat some too though, can he take it is the question.
post it. — exley, kelowna, british columbia
Your wish is my command, Ex. That’s a great question you ask at the end of your email — can Kessler “take it?” Any talented boxer with a quick, busy jab can outpoint Froch but so far nobody’s been able to “take it” without getting worn out or punked out. Froch finds a way to beat far more skilled and athletic boxers such Andre Dirrell, Jean Pascal and Jermain Taylor. Even if you think he’s a p___k, you gotta respect that.
I don’t think Bute blasts our totally dominates Miranda. If he does, I won’t write that he took advantage of a “limited” or “shot” fighter.” I’ll be impressed.
I respect your pick/prediction in the big May 1 showdown. At least you don’t completely discount Mosley in your analysis.
Your take on the Pavlik-Martinez fight has got me stoked. I’m bummed I’m going to have to miss watching it live because of a family obligation.
I do sound a little like Kermit, don’t I? That’s OK. I’m a fan of the late, great Jim Henson and that Muppet frog is probably his best creation.
FOR THE MAILBAG
Hey there Doug,
1st off congratulations on all, but especially your last (although there was no way I was going to buy that ppv) tv gig. I feel about your success kinda how you feel about Valero being that I've been reading your stuff since high school. That's about 7 to 8 years of mailbags… now on to the fights/fighters.
1) It seems to me that Sergio Martinez is somewhat underrated. So I'd like to call an upset on his fight on Saturday, although to me its not really an upset. He's quick, has educated feet, a sturdy chin (which is really important because he will get hit), and decent pop. So if the judges finally get it right, as opposed to his last two fights, it should be a close (7-5/8-4 in rounds) but unanimous decision in his favor.
2) I love seeing you on tv, but please get us SCN Notebook soon. If we can't get one I guess I'll go ahead and ask how are Chris Arreola and Antonio Margarito doing in there respective camps? Does Chris have his weight under control? I understand it's tiresome to talk about his weight all the time, but that's what it always boils down to with him. As for Margarito a few great performances will go a long way in proving that he didn't cheat all through his career. I really hope he has those performances being that I'm a big fan of not only Margarito, but Cotto as well.
3) It was nice to get that recap of your history w/ Valero in the last Mailbag. It got me all excited about him all over again as I read that quick refresher. I really hope he turns his life around and gives us fans a lot to cheer about and you, the father, a lot to gloat about.
— Jesse in Fort Worth, Texas
Thanks for the kind words, Jesse (even though they made me feel a bit old). Seriously, it’s nice to know that there are current fight fans who have read the mailbag regularly for years and some who have been following it from its inception (spring of 2001). I’ll respond to your comments in order:
1. I can definitely see Martinez outboxing Pavlik to a close, unanimous decision. A lot of boxing writers and industry insiders can see that happening (including folks who work for Top Rank, Pavlik’s promotional company). If Martinez wins the middleweight title tonight I don’t think many will consider it an upset.
2. I wish I could tell you how Arreola has been looking in camp but due to some serious family issues I haven’t had the time to visit the Southern California gyms the way I normally do. My schedule (both boxing and personal) is going to be crazy busy during the next few weeks but I’m going to try and visit the camps of Margarito, Brandon Rios, Urbano Antillon, Israel Vazquez, Abner Mares and Tim Bradley before their next fights. Trust me, sooner or later, the SCN will return.
3. I might be overly optimistic or just plain biased but I think Valero will get his act together and provide the boxing world with more than a few unforgettable ring performances. I’ll try not to gloat too much when he does it.