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Fight Picks: Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder 3

Photo by Ryan Hafey/ Premier Boxing Champions
06
Oct

On Saturday, The Ring champion and WBC heavyweight titleholder Tyson Fury will face former titlist and arch-rival Deontay Wilder at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

This third meeting between the two will be aired on ESPN and Fox pay-per-view networks in the U.S., beginning at 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT, and on BT Sport Box Office in the U.K. at 2 a.m. GMT.

In December 2018, Fury came out on the wrong end of a 12-round split decision draw with Wilder in Los Angeles. Fourteen months later, in Las Vegas, “The Gypsy King” demolished the American inside seven rounds to re-establish himself as the No. 1 heavyweight in the world.

Fury (30-0-1, 21 knockouts) appears to have Wilder’s number inside and outside of the ring. Will the champion be complacent? Has Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) been able to get over the devastating stoppage defeat? Will Fury suffer any after-effects from the COVID-19 infection, which led to the postponement of the original July 24 date? Can Wilder get his rival on the canvas, like he did in fight one, and keep him there?



Online gambling group William Hill lists Fury as an 4/11 (-275) favorite, while Wilder is priced at 9/4 (+225); the draw is 20/1 (+2000).

Here’s how the experts see it:

THE RING MAGAZINE/RINGTV.COM

Photo by Al Bello/ Getty Images

TOM GRAY: FURY KO 5
“I picked Fury to win the first fight over the distance and – bogus judging to one side – he did. For the rematch I again picked Fury to win on points but changed to a stoppage following the weigh in (Fury’s added weight was by design). I was right again. For this third fight I foresee a stoppage win for Fury in the first half. If Wilder can’t land a perfect knockout shot with the right hand, then he can’t win this fight. I’m as sure of that as Sunday following Saturday. Skill-wise there’s just no comparison between the two.”

ANSON WAINWRIGHT: FURY TKO 6
“Having seen what Fury did to Wilder, it’s difficult to work out what the American can do to turn the tables, save land that huge right hand. Physically Wilder has recovered from the beatdown in February 2020, but mentally is a whole different ball game. I think Fury will continue to get into Wilder’s head on fight week, and when they step in the ring, he’ll do something very similar to last time.”

LEE GROVES: FURY PTS
“Fury has shown that he can defeat Wilder in more than one way; a strong argument can be made that he out-boxed Wilder in fight one and deserved better than a draw while he overpowered and out-punched him in fight two. But Wilder has a right to feel confident because of the two knockdowns he scored in the first meeting as well as the hard knockdown Steve Cunningham scored in his 2013 bout with “The Gypsy King.” Power is the last asset to go away in seasoned fighters (Wilder will turn 36 soon), and Wilder has plenty of it. Because of that, the fight can turn on a dime at any moment. The guess is that while Wilder will fight better, Fury will still be bigger, bulkier, trickier and more versatile, and he’ll merge the playbooks from the first two fights to keep “The Bronze Bomber” guessing. Both will need time to shake off the 19 months of ring rust, so I see this going the distance, with Fury winning on clean punching, defense and ring generalship (AKA strategic control).”

MICHAEL WOODS: FURY UD
“I’m a sucker, or maybe I’m open minded, and do pretty well at trying to see all or most of the potential angles. But I’ve been swayed a bit in recent days by the “argument” that Fury hasn’t been dialed into being a craftsman of late, and Wilder has been more focused on the task at hand in this third fight between the behemoths. But I’m not fully swayed… I still think the defensive aptitude of Fury brings him the win October 9. Fury unanimous decision, but we should see more from Deontay this time, not the beat down sort of outing we viewed last time.”

MARTY MULCAHEY: FURY TKO
“Outside of two knockdowns I have not seen any evidence that Deontay Wilder can defeat Tyson Fury. Yes, they were big punches, but Fury has shown he can withstand Wilder’s power while Wilder has not been able to figure out Fury’s boxing style. Some are saying Wilder looks great in training, but I have a feeling all this intense focus and multiple fight postponements has actually led Wilder to overtrain. I believe Fury establishes his dominance early again and steadily wears Wilder down for a TKO finish in the championship rounds via three-knockdown rule over an exhausted Wilder.”

MICHAEL MONTERO: FURY UD
“Based on the outcome of their rematch last year, many envision another one-sided win for Tyson Fury in the third bout. However, it’s been more than a year and a half since then and there are several things to consider. Who will the inactivity affect more? Wilder has never been out of the ring this long, yet Fury has recovered from long layoffs in the past. Another factor is health. The champ tested positive for COVID-19 in early July; is he fully recovered? Is three months enough time to get back to 100 percent? Where are both fighters psychologically? Wilder is coming off a devastating loss and, rather than owning it, has made every excuse in the book. The last time we saw Fury out of the ring this long, he was a complete mess. I expect the pace of this fight to resemble the first bout in 2018, more so than the 2020 rematch. I’d bet the over on this one, and a distance fight wouldn’t surprise me. Despite all the questions and X-factors, these two have shared 19 rounds and Fury has won no less than 14 of them. He’s the better boxer through and through. For those reasons, I’m going with Tyson Fury by unanimous decision.”

NORM FRAUENHEIM: FURY TKO 11
“Deontay Wilder’s crazy talk about legal homicide and body bags are all part of an angry threat. He’s promising vengeance. Excuse Fury if he’s smiling. Fury, who has heard it all, has seen it all, at least all of what Wilder can do. His scary right hand is dangerous, all right. But Fury survived it in the first fight. He eliminated it in the second. Wilder had no answer, perhaps because there isn’t one in his limited skillset. Look for the third fight to go the way of the second. Wilder might last longer. He’ll have a plan. But remember Mike Tyson’s timeless line about the vulnerability of any plan. One big punch and it vanishes. Expect Fury to land that punch in the later rounds.”

RON BORGES: FURY TKO
“Fury will again box Wilder to a standstill. This is not because Fury is on par with Floyd Mayweather as a boxer but because Wilder has done nothing to address the problems he had in their first two meetings, which is to say he hasn’t done enough to actually learn how to box. Might Wilder drop Fury with a lethal left or right hand? That is always possible because of his unusually concussive knockout power but to knock someone out you first have to find a way to hit him without getting popped in the face or tied up and Wilder has done little to avoid those past problems. He also now has to deal with the self-doubt that comes from being beaten down by a man as imposing as he is. When Fury begins to frustrate and mystify him how will Wilder react? My guess is not well. Fury by late stoppage.”

BOXING INSIDERS

Photo by Esther Lin / Showtime

DUKE MCKENZIE (FORMER THREE-DIVISION TITLEHOLDER/TV ANALYST): FURY TKO
“Fury will be buoyed by the fact his counterpart AJ is off the scene after being comprehensively outpointed by the brilliant Oleksandr Usyk. If reports are true about Fury looking amazing in training, we must surely expect a repeat performance from the WBC king. He will obviously want to make another statement and take care of business in a division where size really does matter. A hulking Fury should overwhelm his smaller challenger toward the later stages of their scheduled 12-rounder for another impressive win to make a point to AJ: A good big ‘un beats a good little ‘un.”

RAUL MARQUEZ (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/COMMENTATOR): FURY PTS
“Wilder has a lot of pressure on his shoulders to win. He just hasn’t been the same since the loss to Fury. I feel Fury has his number. Fury’s skills and herky-jerky style will get him the win. Fury by decision.”

SERGIO MORA (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/ COMMENTATOR): FURY TKO
“I don’t like trainer changes, especially the older a fighter is. Wilder is a brute puncher. Trying to completely change that will just get him lost in styles. I like Fury by TKO.”

CAMILLE ESTEPHAN (PROMOTER, EYE OF THE TIGER PROMOTIONS): FURY TKO
“I believe Fury figured Wilder out and I see another win by stoppage for Fury. His strategy in the second fight was brilliant and he adapted with the necessary changes. Fury is a very intelligent fighter and I see him coming out on top again by stoppage.”

MARC RAMSAY (TRAINER): FURY TKO 11
“Curiously I think Wilder will do better than his last fight without solving Tyson Fury who is too complete a boxer for him. Fury TKO 11.”

STEVE FARHOOD (TV ANALYST): FURY TKO
“Fury has not only twice displayed physical mastery over Wilder, but at this point, he has to be firmly inside Wilder’s head as well. What exactly is Wilder supposed to do? Short of landing a right-hand bomb, he’s not likely to suddenly unearth an answer. Fury by late-rounds stoppage.”

KATHY DUVA (PROMOTER, MAIN EVENTS): FURY TKO
“In my view Fury has already beaten Wilder twice, stopping him the second time and I expect he will do the same this time. Tyson is the better boxer and has more ring intelligence. He has had nearly 20 rounds to get to know what Wilder can and cannot do. And I don’t expect that, at this point in his career, Wilder will be able to change the way he fights. Fury by TKO.”

JOLENE MIZZONE (MATCHMAKER, MAIN EVENTS): WILDER TKO 7
“Believe it or not, this one, to me, is a hard one. If this fight would have happened in July 2020, I would have gone with Fury without a doubt. His confidence was high and Wilder’s was low. Since this fight is now happening almost two years after their second meeting, I believe that Wilder has done nothing but train since then. I am not so sure Fury has done the same. Fury should beat Wilder every day of the week, but I’m not so sure if his mental game is there. So, based on the above, I believe Fury may be mentally weaker then Wilder. This fight is all about mental in my opinion. Also, another big factor is Fury having Covid, because one big side effect is brain fog. This is why we all love heavyweights because it can end with one shot either way.”

ROBERT DIAZ (MATCHMAKER, GOLDEN BOY): FURY UD
“Deontay wants this victory probably more than any other. Fury has always been very confident, as you should be when undefeated. Who has prepared better? Has Wilder learned something new? Has Tyson Fury taken this fight as serious as the previous ones? In the past two fights I have learned that Fury can adapt: He can box and he can brawl. Deontay’s right is for real and if he lands, most of the time, it is good night. However, Fury showed he can get caught and get up and that must affect Deontay. When a KO artist gets KO’d, it is very hard to come back. I see a much more cautious Wilder, who will box more and use his jab but will abandon the right hand. Fury has his number and will use his size and confidence to move forward to a clear unanimous decision.”

ALEX STEEDMAN (COMMENTATOR): FURY
“It’s not guaranteed that Fury runs all over Wilder in the same manner as last time but I don’t really buy into Wilder’s boxing renaissance either. I’m not expecting Joshua-Ruiz 2 here by any stretch. Wilder has the power to hurt and stop anyone and he did bounce a few right hands-off Fury last time. That remains, so Fury can’t be wholly cavalier. But Tyson has too much in the way of skill as well as tactical options. I’m seeing two possibilities: The cavalier Fury who walks through fire, maybe getting up from the canvas to win inside six or a slightly improved Wilder asking a few questions before losing a decision or being stopped late. Either way, it’s Fury’s fight to win or lose.”

RUDY HERNANDEZ (TRAINER): FURY TKO
“Wilder changing his corner will make a difference. The fight will be more competitive, with Wilder having a better plan when the bell rings, but Tyson Fury is the best heavyweight in the world – he’s got it all. Fury has risen just when you thought he was done. He’s got heart and desire to win. Wilder has heart and desire to win too. This can’t ever not be a good fight. In another thriller, Fury stops Wilder in the later rounds in a fight that’s candidate for fight of the year. May the better man win.”

CHRIS ALGIERI (FORMER WBO JUNIOR WELTERWEIGHT TITLEHOLDER): FURY
“This might be one of the most difficult fights to predict in heavyweight history. In general, it can be difficult to predict heavyweight matchups because of the old adage that anything can happen in the heavyweight division. Fury completely dominated and stopped the former champion last time out and it is easy to think that he will just pick up where he left off. But due to the pandemic and some fancy footwork in the courtroom, this fight has been pushed off many months – much to the benefit of Wilder. Wilder seemed like his psyche was damaged from their last fight and the more time that passes, the more time he has to get his confidence back. I stand by my thought that Wilder can knock out any man walking the planet (and many hooved animals too). He has one punch power that rivals any of the greats. If the clock is ticking, then Deontay is in the fight. That being said, I almost always side with the boxer in the boxer-puncher matchups. I believe Fury’s size, athleticism and long jab are all the tools he needs to continue his dominance in the heavyweight division. I see Fury winning by unanimous or late-round stoppage in a classic brawl for the ages.”

Final Tally: Fury 19-1

 

YOU MAY HAVE MISSED

TYSON FURY: I’M JUST GOING TO OBLITERATE WILDER NICE AND EARLY

 

Questions and/or comments can be sent to Anson at [email protected] and you can follow him on Twitter  @AnsonWainwright

 

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