Predictions: Mikey Garcia is a big favorite over Adrien Broner
HOW THE EXPERTS SEE IT
The matchup between Mikey Garcia and Adrien Broner this Saturday in Brooklyn is fascinating, with lightweight titleholder Garcia moving up in weight to face a former four-division titleholder.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t a clear favorite, though, at least according to the experts.
Twenty of 24 RING experts and other boxing insiders polled here are picking the undefeated Garcia to hand Broner his third defeat. Among those who write for THE RING, Garcia had an 13-1 edge.
Here is how the RING experts and the others see the fight playing out.
DOUG FISCHER: GARCIA UD
I think Mikey Garcia will have his heavy hands full with Adrien Broner’s speed, timing, reflexes, size and durability. But I see the reigning lightweight beltholder landing the cleaner, harder punches through 12 intense but tactical rounds and earning a close but unanimous decision in this intriguing 140-pound showdown between multi-division beltholders in their prime. This is basically a showdown between talented counter punchers. Both Garcia and Broner excel against opponents who stand in front of them or stalk forward in a straight line. Broner has twice been outworked by powerful, volume-punching maulers (Marcos Maidana and Shawn Porter) but he won’t have to deal with swarming pressure from Garcia so the fight should be very competitive.
MICHAEL ROSENTHAL: GARCIA TKO 10
Adrian Broner knows that another loss could damage his career beyond repair, which is why he seems to be as focused as ever. He’d better be. Mikey Garcia is taking a gamble by moving up in weight to face a good, strong fighter but he’s the more talented of the two, which should decide the outcome. Broner hasn’t seen a fighter as complete as Garcia, who has combined a high level of skill with crushing punching power at 135 pounds. If he can do the same at 140 – and I believe he can – Broner could be in big trouble. I believe Garcia will wear down Broner with his sharp, well-timed punches and avoid Broner’s biggest shots until the fight is stopped.
BRIAN HARTY: GARCIA UD
Garcia isn’t like the guys who have beaten Broner, and that works in the The Problem’s favor. I expect we’ll get an entertaining reminder of why Broner was such a hot commodity before he got abused by Marcos Maidana, with some eye-catching stings at the end of those fast hands. But despite all his talents, Broner is still prone to lapses — sometimes even a victim of his own showmanship — that will be exploited by the more cold-blooded, precise Garcia. Looking forward to this one, should be good.
MIKE COPPINGER: GARCIA UD
Broner is going to surprise those counting him out. For one, he appears to be in great shape and seemingly realizes this is his last opportunity to prove he can hang on the elite level. He’s also better suited for 140 pounds. But Garcia is simply the superior technical fighter, possesses less wear-and-tear on his body and stays in shape year-round. The fight should be ultra competitive over the first half, but expect Garcia to pull away over the final six rounds with his sharper combination punching, and he could even drop — or stop — Broner. After all, there should be plenty of prime counter-punching opportunities for the current lightweight champ.
TOM GRAY: GARCIA TKO 10
The pre-fight narrative is that Broner has taken this one seriously and the ‘About Billions’ mantra has been replaced by ‘About Boxing’. For me, though, this new-found commitment is too late. A whacky lifestyle and weight making issues have put ‘The Problem’ several rounds down before the opening bell. Garcia is a consummate professional and the most talented fighter Broner has ever encountered. He is quick, accurate, hard-hitting and his timing is brilliant. I expect Broner to look sharp early but he will begin to look discouraged when his single shots are being countered by combinations. Garcia will get more and more successful as the fight moves on and he will force a late stoppage.
RON BORGES: GARCIA KO 10
Broner has a tendency to lose against anyone who fights back. Garcia will fight back. He also can crack and at some point I believe Broner will wither under Garcia’s constant pressure and take one in the face. When he does, we’ll see if he’s the same guy who has spit the bit before. I like Garcia by a late stoppage.
NORM FRAUENHEIM: GARCIA TKO 10
Adrien Broner is at the crossroads, a last chance to restore hope he can live up to impossible hype that surrounded him before the air went out of the AB balloon against Marcos Maidana. His advantage, perhaps, is that he returns to a weight, 140, where is undefeated. But the guess here is that you can never go back. Garcia, who has all of the momentum, will prove that, especially with newfound power he flashed since his return after a promotional flap kept him on the shelf. Broner figures to be effective early with speed in his feet and hands. But expect Garcia to adjust and hurt Broner for a late-round stoppage.
RYAN SONGALIA: GARCIA UD
Mikey Garcia may be in his physical prime, while Adrien Broner is trying to salvage what is left of his. I favor Garcia because he looks to not have missed a beat in his two fights from the layoff, but I won’t count Broner out in this fight. Even in his two losses he fought back to the end. Broner has heart, and we’ve not seen Garcia pushed since his return; he basically warmed up and then knocked out Dejan Zlaticanin. At 140 Broner won’t be physically outmanned the way he was at 147. Also, what Garcia was able to do to Zlaticanin is enough to make Broner work extra hard. I like Garcia’s jab, his spacing, but this is Broner’s last shot at being an elite fighter and I think he’ll give it a go.
TOM GERBASI: GARCIA UD
Mikey Garcia should be fairly dominant in his move up to 140 pounds. We’ve all heard how a focused Adrien Broner is one of the top boxers in the game, but we haven’t seen that guy in a long time and I don’t expect him to show up on July 29. Garcia may not bring his power to 140, but he will have his accuracy, and Broner will just be a bigger target for him over 12 rounds. Garcia UD 12.
MARTY MULCAHEY: GARCIA UD
I think most fans and boxing insiders lost trust with Adrien Broner years ago, while Mikey Garcia has been the consummate pro preparing for and when getting into the ring. Even if the best possible Broner comes to the fight his punches are not as straight or accurate as Garcia’s, and I have a feeling Broner may be training to make weight instead of preparing to beat Garcia. The only way I see Garcia losing is if Broner gets physical with him, wearing Garcia down for a late stoppage. Still, I like Garcia to beat Broner to every punch, and in the late stages cut off the ring to punish and win a wide unanimous decision.
LEE GROVES: GARCIA UD
While Broner is the naturally bigger man and has the heavier hands, Garcia has been consistently elite while Broner hasn’t maximized his potential. I trust Garcia’s professionalism over Broner’s talent but I believe “The Problem” will be able to withstand Garcia’s blows for the entire distance.
ANSON WAINWRIGHT: GARCIA UD
This fight came out of nowhere, both were expected to fight this summer but against separate rivals. Kudos to both for taking this match up. Either has the ability to win. However, Garcia is perceived as the guy on the way up whilst Broner can ill afford another set back. Garcia looked sensational knocking Dejan Zlaticanin out in January. Broner hasn’t looked elite in quite some time and arguably never when fighting above 135-pounds. Garcia will be Broner’s truth serum in terms of how serious he’s taken this bout. I could see this panning out similar to Freddie Norwood vs. Juan Manuel Marquez (Who Garcia has been readily compared with), on that occasion the African-American won. However, I believe it’s Garcia’s time and he’ll win a unanimous decision, though Broner will have his moments.
MICHAEL WOODS: BRONER SD
“They” want Garcia to win. Hispanic appeal, good work ethic, not prone to missteps outside the ring like Broner. He has that upside as a fighter, and reduced risk for anyone investing in him as an attraction. As compared to Broner, who is really irked that Mikey is being favored…and that just MIGHT propel him to a career best performance. I hope so, for the sake of boxing, which needs his character in the game. Really, he’s taken it personally, I think in a good way, that people are liking Mikey to beat him. Mikey isn’t the sort of steamroller sort who has most often given AB problems. I’m picking Broner, SD, putting it all together.
JOSEPH SANTOLIQUITO: GARCIA UD
I think Mikey Garcia is getting better and better through time, while Broner hasn’t done a whole lot to help himself these last few years. Discipline wins. Garcia has had it throughout his career, and I believe Broner is a frontrunner who will look for a reason to get out when the pressure is turned up.
DUKE MCKENZIE (FORMER BOXER/TV ANALYST): GARCIA MD
Garcia vs. Broner has the potential to be a classic. Why? Because if Broner can produce the form that won him the world title at lightweight then this isn’t the formality that many think it is. Broner a multi-weight world champion can be on his day brilliant to watch but has failed to produce that scintillating form for some time now. While Garcia gone from strength to strength, he’s also a multi-weight champion, he’s looked unstoppable. I’m intrigued to find out just how far Garcia can take his current form. It’s Garcia for me on points by majority decision.
JOLENE MIZZONE (MATCHMAKER): GARCIA SD
I believe Broner puts Garcia down but Garcia gets up to win a close fight. Broner is the bigger guy and more slick fighter so he should win everyday, but not sure Broner has the mental to pull it off, if I’m wrong and Broner has the mental he wins everyday of the week. Garcia is the more inactive guy and a active fighter is a successful fighter so Broner has the edge there. I just think in this one Garcia wins on the mental aspect. So in my view I’m not looking at the match in the ring more of the mental outside the ring. If I was going with my heart I would go with Broner since I have always been a Broner fan!
BRAD GOODMAN (MATCHMAKER): GARCIA TKO 10
I loved Mikey since the beginning of his career and still do. I did 34 of his 36 fights. He’s a special kind of fighter. He’s very intelligent. At times he hasn’t made great fights and the media has labeled him as a boring fighter but the media doesn’t know anything. Real boxing people can respect his skills. He plays chess with guys and he lures them into his kind of fight and when he gets his distance that’s when he’s most dangerous. He’s a great finisher when he knows your hurt. His dad and brother have made him a very solid professional. Broner is as tough as they come and a lot of times he makes his fights much harder than they should be. He’s been in a lot of tough fights and to me he hasn’t been the same since Maidana beat him. Doesn’t seem to react well when he gets hit and hasn’t really taken his career serious since then. I do believe Broner has taken this fight seriously and had a great camp like he said but Mikey is something special. I see the fight going into the second half and Broner maybe having some moments but Mikey always finds a way to win. Mikey by late stoppage.
REGIS PROGRAIS (JUNIOR WELTERWEIGHT CONTENDER): BRONER SD
I’m picking Broner for this fight. Broner is a former four-division champion and he definitely has the tools to win. It’s only a matter of which AB will show up fight night. From watching his training camp through social media I feel like he’s serious about this fight. I think he realizes the magnitude of this fight and he’s on his A game. If he’s serious then he is a ‘Problem’. Also, Broner is the naturally bigger guy. I say Broner by split decision.
RONNIE SHIELDS (FORMER BOXER/TRAINER): BRONER SD
I think it’s a pick ’em fight. It’s going to be a real close fight. I know for a fact Adrien Broner is going to be in the best shape he’s been in in a very long time. Mikey Garcia’s always in good shape. It’s a pick ’em fight. I like Adrien Broner because he’s the boxer of the two. I just think with the experience he has fighting the guys fought it might be a little in his favor. I think it’ll be a close split decision.
ISMAEL SALAS (TRAINER): GARCIA UD
For this weekend’s fight. It’s a tough fight for both of them but we have one fighter who is a good fighter who takes care of himself and another who is a good fighter who doesn’t take care of himself. Broner is a guy who has so much talent but has so many issues, one he has now I think is with weight making. My favorite is Mikey Garcia. I think it will go 12 rounds and it will be a unanimous decision for Mikey or it can be a TKO but only after six rounds.
RAUL MARQUEZ (FORMER BOXER/TV ANALYST): GARCIA SD
Both guys need this win especially for Broner. Broner’s training in Colorado taking this fight serious. He has speed and power to take the fight inside and push Mikey back. Mikey needs to beat a name like Broner on his resume. His not typical your Mexican fighter that just comes forward, he’s an excellent boxer/counter puncher moving up in weight. Can he carry his power? We’ll see. Mikey by close split decision
SEAN GIBBONS (MATCHMAKER): GARCIA UD
I think the fight starts even for the first few rounds. I think the weight for Broner coming down to 140 will cause him problems in the second half of the fight. He looks weak to me in the pictures I have seen. Mikey is always a very well disciplined fighter and that will be the difference in winning a unanimous decision.
ROBERT DIAZ (MATCHMAKER): GARCIA UD
Very interesting fight because unfortunately with Broner you never know. Both fighters are so different here and that is what makes this fight interesting. Broner likes the attention and loves to talk outside of the ring while Mikey is quiet doesn’t like to make noise until he steps into the ring and then he talks with his fist. Broner’s kryptonite is aggressive brawlers like Maidana and Porter, Garcia is more of a counter-puncher. Is Broner in shape did he really train hard? Will the weight affect him? Does two months of hard training make up for 10 months of fast life? So many questions. In the end I predict a closer fight then many predict but Garcia walks away with a unanimous decision.
BRIAN MCINTRYRE (TRAINER): BRONER UD
I like this fight, it gives the feel of the 80’s. I like Broner in this fight. I’ve been watching him the last couple weeks up here in Colorado Springs and the kids is slim, trim and focused. I’ve never seen him in this mood before. I think he wins on points.