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Dougie’s Friday mailbag

Art by Richard Sloan
Fighters Network
05
May

CANELO-CHAVEZ JR. PREDICTION

Hey Doug,

I see Canelo Alvarez winning Saturday, beating Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. either by late TKO (Round 10 or so) or a clear UD.

The body attack is going to be key for both, but I think Canelo’s power shots, specifically the left hook and maybe the uppercut could be the difference for him. Thanks man. – Robert from Ashton, MD



I agree with your pick and your analysis. I see Canelo being the sharper puncher throughout the fight, but if Chavez Jr. is able to safely re-hydrate after today’s weigh-in and have his legs under him come fight time (a lot of, “ifs,” I know) I think he can be competitive by outworking and pressuring the naturally smaller man.

A body attack would be wise for Canelo because fighters who have to lose a lot of weight are often susceptible to punches to the midsection (and because Chavez has proven to have a pretty reliable chin), and Junior would do well to mix in body shots with his pressure because he can force the redhead (who does a good job of slipping punches to the face) to cover up more and also take away from the Guadalajara native’s questionable stamina.

I think we’re going to get a few gems on the pay-per-view undercard – my hunch is that the Lucas Matthysse-Emmanuel Taylor fight will deliver – but the main event needs to be entertaining for Saturday’s event to be considered a total success. So I’m hoping both Mexican stars back up their pre-fight words in the ring and give us their all. I think they will because of the national pride that’s on the line and because both have something to prove: Canelo, who’s got a chip on his shoulder when it comes to Junior, wants to show us he can be a badass after weighing in as a full middleweight; and Chavez Jr. wants to prove all of his doubters wrong.

 

WHY I’M PICKING CHAVEZ JR.

Hey Doug, when the fight was first announced, I thought of it as a mere showcase for Canelo, but as fight night draws near I have changed my mind.

While it’s true Canelo has looked his best against aggressive/come-forward fighters, he has never gone toe to toe with someone as big and strong as Chavez. Typically, when fighters go toe to toe, punching power, durability, and infighting skills win the day. This is where Chavez has the advantages.

While it’s true that Canelo has the better hand speed, reflexes, and timing, he has always been slow of foot. It surprises me how many people see him “sticking and moving” to easily outpoint Chavez in this fight as Canelo has never really done this.

Furthermore, while talk of Canelo having major stamina issues is overblown, he does have a tendency to go to the ropes to cover up and counter when he gets a bit weary. This is not the place to be against Chavez.

With Canelo at a disadvantage in the phone booth and not possessing the foot speed to play matador like Manny Pacquiao against Oscar De La Hoya or Sergio Martinez against Chavez, I see him being in for a very rough night.

I’m picking Chavez to win, taking over down the stretch and grinding Canelo down to a points win or a late stoppage. – Jack

Bold pick, Jack, very bold. (The good folks at Tecate would be proud of you if they didn’t sponsor the dude you think will lose.) But it’s not without its merits. You make a lot of sense.

While it’s true Canelo has looked his best against aggressive/come-forward fighters, he has never gone toe to toe with someone as big and strong as Chavez. This is true. Canelo has faced some good-sized junior middleweights over the last four years – Austin Trout, Alfredo Angulo and James Kirkland – and these guys entered the ring weighing about as much as he did (between 165-170 pounds), but he’s never shared the ring with someone who might outweigh him by 10 or more pounds.

Typically, when fighters go toe to toe, punching power, durability, and infighting skills win the day. This is where Chavez has the advantages. Hmmm… I think Chavez has better infighting skills that the other big men that Canelo has faced, but I’m not convinced that he’s better than Alvarez in this department. I hope we find out tomorrow night because I’m a major fan of clean infighting and it’s a pugilistic art that the top Mexican fighters have excelled at historically. I’m also not sure if Chavez’s punching power is going to be better than Canelo’s. I think on average that he’s probably got the heavier hands, but Canelo’s speed/snap, timing and accuracy might actually make him the harder power hitter of the two. And if Chavez were weighing in at 168 pounds I’d assume that he’s the more durable of the two, but if he drains himself too much making 164.5 pounds, who knows how good his punch resistance will be?

While it’s true that Canelo has the better hand speed, reflexes, and timing, he has always been slow of foot. I agree. He’s not one to get on his toes or use a lot of lateral movement during his fights. Canelo likes to stake out the center of the ring and beckon his opponents to “bring it.”

It surprises me how many people see him “sticking and moving” to easily outpoint Chavez in this fight as Canelo has never really done this. Yeah, I’ve heard respected pundits (including my good buddy Steve Kim) say/write that Canelo play late-2008 Manny Pacquiao to Chavez’s drained, old Oscar De La Hoya; and I understand the analogy from a weight perspective, but Canelo’s boxing style is not as frenetic and mobile as Manny’s was eight+ years ago. I think a better style analogy for this fight could be Roy Jones Jr.’s heavyweight excursion against then-WBA beltholder John Ruiz. We’ll see.

Furthermore, while talk of Canelo having major stamina issues is overblown, he does have a tendency to go to the ropes to cover up and counter when he gets a bit weary. This is not the place to be against Chavez. Agreed. But Chavez must have the willingness and stamina to take advantage of these moments when Canelo tries to rest on the ropes. Canelo can be dangerous off the ropes, as he proved to be against Liam Smith in his last fight, so will Chavez be willing or able to take those counter punches while attempting to crowd and work the odds favorite over?

With Canelo at a disadvantage in the phone booth and not possessing the foot speed to play matador like Manny Pacquiao against Oscar De La Hoya or Sergio Martinez against Chavez, I see him being in for a very rough night. I think you are correct IF Chavez doesn’t drain himself too much from making 164.5 pounds (and doesn’t put too much weight back on). He’s getting close to the contracted weight (if you believe this photo). I’m sure Wednesday and Thursday were the longest days of Junior’s life but he can see light at the end of the tunnel today. He’s just gotta hold out until 3 p.m. PT.

But while we’re on the subject of weight, another X-factor in this matchup is how well Canelo will operate with the added poundage, especially over the second half of a grueling fight? He could be like a miler that decides to bulk up to increase his speed and then finds out that while his added muscle helps him run a fast 800 meters it weighs him down and ties him up over the crucial third and fourth laps. We’ll find out tomorrow night.

 

IS JUNIOR IN A CLASS OF HIS OWN?

Hi Doug,

First of all. Wow. What an event in London. It was like getting boxing-drunk without a hangover. It can’t get any better than that.

I have a question. Can you think of any current or former world champion who was a rich kid? Yes, I know Julio Jr. is no standard of consistency. However, he had it all as a kid and yet became champion of the world.

Most of the standing boxers from Latin America (and from many other countries) we all get to know, do not come from wealthy families. In some way, I admire Julito. It might be weird, I know. But still, I can’t remember any other boxer who, like Junior, defeated his privileges to become champion of the world.

By the way, I think he will get his ass kicked. – Carlos, from Hermosillo, Mexico

Maybe. Maybe not. But you’re correct in that it’s very rare for wealthy or even upper-middle class kids to choose boxing as their main vocation and to have has as much success as Chavez Jr. However, it should come as no surprise that the son of the most accomplished and celebrated Mexican boxer of all time wanted to follow in his father’s footsteps.

But I was surprised at how far he got in boxing. I remember Junior’s first couple of fights in the U.S., back when he was a skinny, Pee-Wee Herman-looking teenager fighting mid-western journeymen on Erik Morales undercards in the mid-2000s. I doubted if he’d last more than a couple years, and I certainly didn’t think he’d ever work his way up to legit prospect or contender status.

Even when Chavez proved to be a decent welterweight/junior middleweight prospect with underrated boxing/fighting ability during Top Rank’s old “Latin Fury” PPV series in the late 2000s (the first one, which he headlined vs. Ray Sanchez in New Mexico, was my live commentary debut alongside veteran Rich Marotta and the late, great Genaro Hernandez), I figured Top Rank’s “end game” was to get the kid on an HBO “Boxing After Dark” broadcast fighting an old retread like Carlos Baldomir, and if he won, then cash him out against Miguel Cotto.

But, despite a few missteps/gift decisions here and there, Chavez went on to make history as the first Mexican to win a major middleweight title, and he even defended the strap a few times vs. solid opposition before losing it to the rightful owner (Martinez). Not too shabby for a “spoiled rich kid.”

Anyway, to answer your original question, yes, I am aware of a former world champion who was very well off as a kid, and it just so happens that he’s a hall of famer from Mexico (and will calling the action to tomorrow’s event for Mexican TV), his name is Marco Antonio Barrera.

 

CHANELO & WLADIMIR

Hi Dougie,

1) CHANELO is a really intriguing fight.

Chavez was a little overrated thanks to his name. He has this fight because he is famous and perceived to be faded (it’s not unlike some of Mayweather’s and Pacquiao’s fights… Ward, GGG and Froch wanted the Chavez fight for the same reason).

Despite this, Chavez has a spectacular style, is resistant and is a good body puncher. He will make Canelo shine and work. Gingerelo can out-box his foe, but I doubt he wants only that. He is not the type of boxer who just defends and counter attacks. Also, he has pretty good footwork but not good enough to avoid Chavez’s attack for 12 rounds. Finally, I think that the “Battle for Pride of Mexico” factor will make both give their all.

The weight: How will Canelo appear now that he’s stopped draining himself ? Probably in better shape and for maybe the first time, he will not to be the bigger man. On the other hand, I am concerned by Junior’s shape and wonder if he drained himself too much. I hope for a good fight. I think that Alvarez will win by late TKO in an exciting fight.

2) Wladimir Klitschko is a true champion, before, now and forever. Not really exciting during his reign, but I don’t remember that he ever shied away from a challenge. Sadly, his biggest challenge was his own brother.

After one year of inactivity, he took on Anthony Joshua, a dangerous and talented rising contender, and gave a very good fight. No shame in losing. I praise both men for their bravery.

3) What is your most exciting potential fight for this year? Berchelt/Miura (my choice)? Gonzalez/SSR 2? Brook/Spence? Alvarez/Chavez? Other choices?
Mythical Matchups:

Wlad Vs. Vitali (if they were not brothers)

André Ward Vs. André Dirrell (168)

Terrence Crawford Vs. Shane Mosley and Floyd Mayweather Jr. (both at 135)

Thanks. – Antoine Aubin

Is “Chanelo” really a name for the Canelo-Chavez Jr. fight that’s circulating out there, or did you just make it up? “Khanelo” was kind of catchy and clever, but this one doesn’t work for me.

But I agree that it’s an intriguing fight.

Chavez was a little overrated thanks to his name. I agree. If he were an unknown Mexican fighter to be the first from his country to win a major 160-pound belt, he’d be given a lot more respect, but he’s held to an impossible standard being the son of a hall of famer who was unbeaten in his first 90 pro bouts.

He has this fight because he is famous and perceived to be faded (it’s not unlike some of Mayweather’s and Pacquiao’s fights… Ward, GGG and Froch wanted the Chavez fight for the same reason). You’re not wrong.

Despite this, Chavez has a spectacular style, is resistant and is a good body puncher. I wouldn’t describe Junior’s style as “spectacular” but he’s got a solid foundation, decent technique, heavy hands and a high-volume workrate when he’s in good shape and motivated. He also moves around the ring pretty good for a man his size.

He will make Canelo shine and work. Agreed.

Gingerelo can out-box his foe, but I doubt he wants only that. “Gingerelo”? Damn dude, that sounds like a virgin cocktail. Leave the boxer nicknames to the professionals.

He is not the type of boxer who just defends and counter attacks. True, but sometimes I wish he’d add more ring-cutting and pressure to his game. I was a bit disappointed in the way his showdowns with Erislandy Lara and Miguel Cotto turned out.

Also, he has pretty good footwork but not good enough to avoid Chavez’s attack for 12 rounds. Agreed.

Finally, I think that the “Battle for Pride of Mexico” factor will make both give their all. It f__kin’ better! There’s already around 20,000 Mexican and Mexican-America boxing fans from around the country, as well as at least 500 members of Mexico’s sports media, here in Vegas expecting to see those two go at it.

The weight: How will Canelo appear now that he’s stopped draining himself? Probably in better shape and for maybe the first time, he will not to be the bigger man. I’m guessing that Canelo will weigh-in a little over 160 pounds and look stacked. I know he’ll feel great on the scale. We’ll see how he does on fight night.

On the other hand, I am concerned by Junior’s shape and wonder if he drained himself too much. He didn’t look too healthy at Wednesday’s final press conference (and he couldn’t hide it with his oversized old-man shades and Rasta cap).

I hope for a good fight. Me too.

I think that Alvarez will win by late TKO in an exciting fight. Agreed.

After one year of inactivity, (Klitschko) took on Anthony Joshua, a dangerous and talented rising contender, and gave a very good fight. No shame in losing. I praise both men for their bravery. I think most of the boxing world has given both heavyweights their deserved props for delivering a fight to remember on April 29 (and for being so classy before and after the event).

What is your most exciting potential fight for this year? Berchelt/Miura (my choice)? Gonzalez/SSR 2? Brook/Spence? Alvarez/Chavez? Other choices? I agree with you, I think it’s gonna be Berchelt vs. Miura. Much has been said and written about the Mexico-vs.-Puerto Rico and Mexico-vs.-Mexico boxing rivalries, but give me Mexico-vs.-Japan any day, that matchup never flops.

Your mythical matchups:

Wlad Vs. Vitali (if they were not brothers) – Vitali by come-from-behind stoppage in a careful but intense chess match

André Ward Vs. André Dirrell (168) – Ward by UD or late TKO after a shaky start

Terrence Crawford Vs. Shane Mosley and Floyd Mayweather Jr. (both at 135) – Mosley by late TKO, Crawford by close decision (or controversial decision loss like Floyd’s first Jose Luis Castillo bout)

 

WE HAVE A NEW ERA IN BOXING (FINGERS CROSSED)

Sup Doug!

After letting a few days pass by and absorbing everything that happened in the clash of mammoths last Saturday, I get a very good feeling about the sport. I’ve been one of those mopey and emo fans that have been less than fascinated with the complications within the sport, but at last, we are nearing the promised land! Haha, I’ll be the over optimistic guy this time.

For the first time, I’ve had people at work that NEVER watch boxing, bring up the Joshua-Klitschko clash. “That guy that won, from England, don’t we have a guy that can beat him?” one guy said. It truly made me think we might be stepping into a new era, a new chapter in the sport. Hey, let me dream here.

I believe Joshua can cross over to the masses, can inspire a renaissance, as there has been in the UK, and the US will slowly in a few years come back to their forgotten mistress, boxing. I hope we can get a little bit of a contact high from the scene in Britain, we need it. Anyways, I appreciate the mailbag and the responses to us kooks. – Francisco, Denver

You kooks are alright by me, as long as you’re not being too mopey. (Take that emo s__t somewhere else, please!)

I think U.S. boxing already has a contact high from the U.K. scene. I can feel it here in Las Vegas among the fans and sports media that came out early for Canelo-Chavez Jr. fight week, among all the undercard fighters and their teams, and among boxing industry folks.

There’s momentum from Joshua-Klitschko that’s being carried into Saturday’s main event. If Canelo-Chavez Jr. delivers the momentum will build and be carried to the next big fight/event (Brook-Spence and Ward-Kovalev II), and so on.

By the way, when your co-worker asked that question about Joshua, did you bring up Deontay Wilder or nah?

 

JOSHUA-KLITSCHKO & BANNING THE MEDIA

Hello Doug,

Been reading the mailbag for a couple of years now, and attended my first “proper” boxing event before at the weekend – have seen local/club shows etc., but nothing anywhere near the magnitude of what I witnessed at Wembley. What a day, what a fight, what a champion. Massive respect to Klitschko, I had a feeling that we would see the best of him and boy did we? AJ made my doubting voice about him a lot more quiet (but is still there!). If it was up to you 100% – who would you like to see Joshua face next and where?

Bit off topic, and unsure if you heard about this, but the IFL TV (popular UK based YouTube boxing channel) co-founder Kugan Cassius was barred from the press area at Wembley for the fight….. the night before….. because of Bernd Boente believing that he is too close to Team Fury. Kugan has also been at Wembley covering the head to heads, weigh-ins, etc. How would you feel if, for example, the Golovkin-Canelo fight finally came to fruition and Tom Loeffler told you the night before you couldn’t attend the fight?

I think after being in that stadium I have to agree with you that Joshua is the number 1 draw in boxing, and was wondering if you could do a current P4P top 10 just in terms of stardom and pulling power in your opinion?

Hope to make the mailbag and best wishes to you and yours. Many thanks. – Keano, England

Thanks Keano. Sadly, I don’t think there are 10 bona-fide international “stars” in boxing at the moment. There are plenty of regional attractions and more than a few potential crossover standouts, but though boxing is clearly on the up-swing, I think there are only around five current worldwide stars. If Floyd Mayweather Jr. un-retires, he would be No. 1, but in his absence I’m going with Joshua as the top dog with Canelo Alvarez as a close second, followed by Manny Pacquiao, Wladdy Klitschko and Gennady Golovkin.

If it was up to you 100% – who would you like to see Joshua face next and where? I’d want him to unify belts with Wilder in the U.K., and in a perfect world the winner would take on Joseph Parker or Tyson Fury (if he’s ready by then).

Bit off topic, and unsure if you heard about this, but the IFL TV (popular UK based YouTube boxing channel) co-founder Kugan Cassius was barred from the press area at Wembley for the fight….. the night before….. because of Bernd Boente believing that he is too close to Team Fury. I had not heard about it but I think Cassius does a great job with his interviews (and he’s obviously got a herculean work ethic), so I’m disappointed that any member of Klitschko’s team would ban him from doing his job and that Eddie Hearn, who knows Kugan well, would allow it. But this is the way it is with modern sports coverage. Sooner or later, especially in boxing and MMA, you’re going to get banned from an event for whatever reason (whether you deserve it or not). It’s happened to me a few times. It’s not the end of the world.

How would you feel if, for example, the Golovkin-Canelo fight finally came to fruition and Tom Loeffler told you the night before you couldn’t attend the fight? I’d be very disappointed with Tom and, with the help of Coach Schwartz, I’d give him an earful the next time I saw him at the Santa Monica College track.

 

Email Fischer at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @dougiefischer

 

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