FINAL TAKE ON KOVALEV-WARD

Hey Doug,

Saturday can’t come soon enough. I was wondering if you could give us your final take on how you see the fight between Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev going down. I’ve got Ward, but like any sane person trying to predict this fight, I’m not confident. I think Ward has to gain Kovalev’s respect early and try to hurt him. While it’s true Ward isn’t a knockout artist he can put some mustard on the left hook and I think if he can buzz Kovalev early it will make Sergey hesitant and a lot more counter-able for the rest of the fight. Both men have great jabs and do great bodywork too. Ward’s jab might not have the same pop to it but I think he can be first with it and beat Kovalev to the punch.

Will Kovalev be able to cut off the ring and corner Ward? He did this successfully against Bernard Hopkins but I think Ward will try to stand his ground with the bully, rather than backpedal and shell up. A KO for Ward might not be out of the question if he can find his range with the left hook. Likewise for Kovalev with the right hand, especially if he can time it to shoot down into Wards temple when he ducks down outside the jab. I can’t wait. – Jack

Me neither. I favor Kovalev, but being of sound mind, I’m not 100% confident in my pick. As I’ve stated before this is one of those rare elite boxing matchups where there are several realistic scenarios that could play out. I can see either fighter winning by a variety of ways, some more realistic than others, obviously. Anyway, I think you and I agree on pretty much everything except for who’s gonna win. As for my final take on the fight: I think the two are going to go tit-for-tat over the first half of the bout (and I expect Ward to be slightly ahead on the scorecards after six or seven rounds), but I believe Kovalev will gradually put him into a defensive mode during the late rounds and finish stronger to win a close points victory.

I think Ward has to gain Kovalev’s respect early and try to hurt him. So do I.

While it’s true Ward isn’t a knockout artist he can put some mustard on the left hook and I think if he can buzz Kovalev early it will make Sergey hesitant and a lot more counter-able for the rest of the fight. I agree that Ward can land his hook with authority. Ward, who I believe is a converted southpaw, can also put some mustard on his jab and “shot-gun” it so to speak. Regardless of how he does it, I agree that he’s got to get Kovalev’s respect early (like within the first two rounds).

Ward’s jab might not have the same pop to it but I think he can be first with it and beat Kovalev to the punch. I think Ward’s jab can have more “pop” than Kovalev’s left stick. It just depends on which jab he wants to use. He’s got some variation to this punch.

Will Kovalev be able to cut off the ring and corner Ward? I don’t know. That’s one of the key questions going into this matchup. Kovalev can cut the ring off, but he’s not an expert at it like Gennady Golovkin. He did a good job walking down some of the boxers he faced in the past, such as Nathan Cleverly and Ismael Sillah (both of whom he got to and hurt a lot earlier than I thought he’d be able to), but those guys aren’t on Ward’s level. Kovalev is not a pressure fighter. We have to keep that in mind. However, I think he’ll press Ward more than anyone since Sakio Bika, but with much better technique, power and purpose. Kovalev applies gradual pressure – he doesn’t close ground fast and hard like a Joe Frazier or Julio Cesar Chavez – so Ward will have some time early in the bout get his game plan in action. It will be interesting to see if Ward tries to get inside from the get-go, or if he tries to time and out-speed Kovalev from the outside. Kovalev, as you know, operates best from long and/or middle distance. This might suit Ward, it might not.

He did this successfully against Bernard Hopkins but I think Ward will try to stand his ground with the bully, rather than backpedal and shell up. I think Team Kovalev will welcome that tactic from Ward, as will most of the fans watching the bout. And we’ll find out if Kovalev is really the “bully” that Ward has branded him. Bullies quit when the going gets tough.

A KO for Ward might not be out of the question if he can find his range with the left hook. Agreed.

Likewise for Kovalev with the right hand, especially if he can time it to shoot down into Wards temple when he ducks down outside the jab. If Kovalev lands this particular shot at that specific area of Ward’s head tomorrow night’s showdown could come to an abrupt end.

A DEFINING FIGHT

Hello Doug,

A few thoughts from a long-time reader, first time writer to the mailbag. In thirty plus years of obsessively watching the fights, seldom have I been so unsure of the outcome of an upcoming bout as I am with Kovalev-Ward. I see a number of possible scenarios playing out, including a Leonard-Hearns type role reversal, with the tiger coming out in Ward to the surprise of many. Andre’s mental strength and clarity of mind are probably his greatest assets, and his intense focus may come as a surprise to Kovalev. Just thirty-six minutes, but a legacy can be cemented in such short time, and you can be sure that Ward is fully aware of that fact.

Despite these misgivings, I have a feeling this will all come down to simple physics and unusual force. Sergey is a rarity, a fighter with seriously heavy hands, AND a versatile skillset. I see a lot in common with Roberto Duran, and it’s possible Ward’s best chance may be to frustrate Kovalev a’la Leonard-Duran 2, but it’s a huge ask. Ward sees himself as something of a bully-basher, but it’s going to be awful hard stopping Kovalev from taking his lunch money come Saturday.

A defining night for both men men I feel…. cheers and enjoy. – Barry Rabbitts

Thanks for finally writing to the mailbag column, Barry. Hopefully, boxing gives us more matchups like Kovalev-Ward so you will continue to share your thoughts and opinions with us.

I see a number of possible scenarios playing out, including a Leonard-Hearns type role reversal, with the tiger coming out in Ward to the surprise of many. I hope this happens. Actually, I think it HAS to happen to a degree in order for Ward to earn Kovalev’s respect and gradually take over the bout.

Andre’s mental strength and clarity of mind are probably his greatest assets, and his intense focus may come as a surprise to Kovalev. I agree that those are Ward’s best assets in the ring, but I’m not sure that they will come as a surprise to Kovalev. Perhaps it all will if Ward is able to take Kovalev’s best shots and still stick to his game plan.

Despite these misgivings, I have a feeling this will all come down to simple physics and unusual force. You are not alone (although the majority of the boxing media seems to have more confidence in Ward’s talent, skill and ring IQ).

Sergey is a rarity, a fighter with seriously heavy hands, AND a versatile skillset. I agree.

KOVALEV-WARD WILL BE A BARNBURNER

Hey Dougie, a few notes:
This weekend’s rumble, between Ward and Kovalev is hard to spot a clear-cut favorite. I’ll leave that up to you experts. But like Ward has always said, it is a 50/50 match-up on paper. I think that there is too much pride on the line for this to be anything but a barnburner. Forget the fact that I am rooting for a FOTY candidate here. Do you really see any of these guys laying down? I don’t think so.

Man you should have some sort of talk sports radio because I am that hyper-aggressive fan that would make for killer ratings!

I’m not sure who will win (as I’ve stated before), but I believe we could be treated to a high impact fight. The biggest fight since Canelo/Cotto. Only I can pretty much guarantee that this bout will have more fireworks. I’ve heard you, Kim & Montero calling for a somewhat boring fight… not gonna happen. For two reasons:

1) the Krusher has a whole nation riding upon his shoulders.
2) SOG has a firm belief in God to see him through the tough rounds. One that he really believes in, whether we are atheists or not. Which has obviously helped him in the past.

Not an easy fight score. But I don’t see any fighter sitting back on punches. Expect a DonnyBrook from the first round. Hey, I’ve called these things before. – Stevie Stacks, Canada

I’m sure you have, Stevie, and I hope that you’re right again this Saturday night.

And by the way, you gotta pick a winner. You can’t leave that up to “the experts.” There are no experts in boxing.

I think that there is too much pride on the line for this to be anything but a barnburner. I agree that there’s too much pride on the line for either fighter to give anything less than 100%, but that doesn’t mean they will throw caution to the wind and go at it like a couple of psychos. (I’d be totally cool with that if they did, though.) I think both men will totally committed to their game plans and the skills/styles that got them to this point. It may not make for the Fight of the Year, but I think it will make for an intense boxing match that features its share of power plays and drama.

Do you really see any of these guys laying down? I don’t think so. I don’t think so, either. They won’t lay down unless the other guy forces them to by knocking them out.

The biggest fight since Canelo/Cotto. Only I can pretty much guarantee that this bout will have more fireworks. I hope you’re right because I was a bit disappointed and underwhelmed by Cotto-Canelo.

Man you should have some sort of talk sports radio because I am that hyper-aggressive fan that would make for killer ratings! Good to know, Stevie. We’ll try to get this new show, The Ring 5, with your boy Kim going before the end of this year.

LAST WEEKEND SUCKED, ONTO KOVALEV-WARD

Ortiz SUCKED. Garcia did what he had to do, his verbal altercation with Thurman was more entertaining than both fights combined.

I would be really shocked if Garcia bet Thurman. However, one thing Garcia does is win. There is something about him, he finds a way to win. He did it against Khan, Mattyse, Morales when he still had something left, Holt, Zab, etc… When you look at him, it might look like he is barely getting by, but somehow it is enough and he finds a way to win.

From the outside he looks too stationary and looks to load up too much, he loves to get in range and let his hands go and catch you between shots. Will that work against a bigger harder hitter in Thurman. Conventional wisdom would say no. But the little dude is a winner. For the record I am picking Thurman.

On to better business. Kovalev/Ward.

My heart goes with my mulatto brother Ward. Ward does not know how to lose. Kovalev is the real deal, there is no doubt about that. Kovalev is not coming to play patty cakes with Ward. He is coming to f_ck Ward up and Ward is no p_ssy! Ward is not coming to lose or just go the distance as a consolation prize. Ward is coming to take those belts, you have to respect that. To move up in weight and pick on the baddest man in the division and one of the baddest men in all of boxing (that is not hyperbole) you have to respect it.

I am picking Ward to win. I am taking NOTHING away from Kovalev at all, but Ward has an awesome inside game, he gets up in your chest and just stays there for 3 minutes a round. Does anyone remember what he did to Allen Green? I am not comparing Kovy to Green, not even close, but that inside game he displayed. He did the same with Froch, I believe Abraham, Kessler and the list goes on. He will get inside and just work. Kovalev is a beast, he has bombs and boxing skills, no question about it. But I do not think he has an inside game. He has long arms and bombs, but I do not think he can bet Ward on the inside. I predict Ward beats Kovalev with his inside game.

Thank you. – Jason C. Brown

That’s the common wisdom among boxing insiders, Jason. They figure once Ward gets inside Kovalev’s reach, he will firmly take over the fight and win as decisively as he did against all those super middleweights that you mentioned. I think this if very possible (although I also think Ward can trouble Kovalev and score points through lateral movement and by setting traps). However, that inside game theory should come with this caveat: “Easier said than done.”

I think Kovalev and his team are aware of Ward’s strengths and ring tactics, and I’m sure that they’ve worked on counter measures (some of which might be a tad brutal).

Ward is coming to take those belts, you have to respect that. I do.

To move up in weight and pick on the baddest man in the division and one of the baddest men in all of boxing (that is not hyperbole) you have to respect it. I do. Even Ward’s biggest detractors respect that he’s taking on The Krusher.

My heart goes with my mulatto brother Ward. I respect that. (Especially since Dre has the “good” mix – white dad, black mom – like me. I’m just kidding.) But if he falls short, just keep in mind that James DeGale is also biracial (white British mother, black Grenadian father). So if he beats Badou Jack (who come to think of it might also be biracial, Swede and Gambian), he can be the “Great Brown Hope” and challenge Kovalev for worldwide mulatto pride. (By the way, did you know that Kovalev’s trainer John David Jackson, an overlooked factor in Saturday’s matchup, is also biracial – black and Mexican?)

Ward does not know how to lose. True. Neither does Kovalev. But there’s a first time for everything.

I would be really shocked if Garcia bet Thurman. I’m picking our mulatto brother to win this one (on points) but I would not be shocked if Garcia beat him. Garcia’s lost most of his career momentum and hardcore fan respect, but he remains a world-class and experienced young boxer-puncher.

However, one thing Garcia does is win. There is something about him, he finds a way to win. True.

From the outside he looks too stationary and looks to load up too much, he loves to get in range and let his hands go and catch you between shots. Yup, and Garcia is very good at doing this.

Will that work against a bigger harder hitter in Thurman? It will if Thurmy stands and trades too much. You don’t beat Garcia with just your fists, you gotta use your legs (and head) too. I think Thurman will have to hit-and-move a lot in this fight.

NOVEMBER FIREWORKS

What’s up Doug, hope all is well.

Wanted run through the Kovalev v Ward fight and the Axe Man vs Loma bust up.

Firstly, I am looking forward to Kovalev / Ward but not excited if that makes sense.

I have mad respect for Ward but I’ve never been ‘up for’ his fights, mainly because of his style but also slightly because of his guarded personality. While the Krusher does what he says on the tin, part of me feels that Wards skills and defensive smothering do enough to make the fight competitive but also takes some of the sting out of the action.

I go for a split decision win for Kovalev, how do you see this?

Walters vs Lomachenko on the other hand has it all, I’ll be rooting for the Axe Man but he has his work cut out. I believe Loma wins this but I’d love a stunning KO upset by the Jamaican. Either way it’s going to be technical but explosive, I’ll be tuning in.

Would be great to hear a breakdown of how you see Walters’ skill set matching up against Lomachenko. Cheers. – Seth

I think Walters has the skill, technique and experience to compete with Lomachenko; he may have the punching power to hurt the Ukrainian southpaw, but I don’t think he has the overall talent and versatility to impose his will on the amateur boxing legend.

I agree that the Nov. 26 matchup has it all and should deliver a hell of a fight (as most matchups between top lighter-weight fighters do), but I think Lomachenko’s superior footwork, fluidity and creativity will keep him in control of the fight. He blends a busy, varied offense with a slick defense (while in the pocket) better than anyone since the prime versions of James Toney and Pernell Whitaker.

Firstly, I am looking forward to Kovalev / Ward but not excited if that makes sense. I understand completely. You’re approaching the fight with guarded expectations. I can’t blame you. The days of elite boxers and elite showdowns living up to (or exceeding) expectations are long gone.

I have mad respect for Ward but I’ve never been ‘up for’ his fights, mainly because of his style but also slightly because of his guarded personality. I understand. And you don’t have to be apologetic about it (not saying that you are).

While the Krusher does what he says on the tin, part of me feels that Wards skills and defensive smothering do enough to make the fight competitive but also takes some of the sting out of the action. That’s very possible.

I go for a split decision win for Kovalev, how do you see this? Competitive and close, but a clear decision win for Kovalev.

S.O.G. COUNTDOWN

Doug,

For most of us who follow boxing Ward vs Kovalev seems to be a toss up. But I myself just can’t picture Ward losing. Even though the Super 6 was a few years back Ward still has the overall better resume and has faced down superior opposition. Kessler, Froch and Dawson in particular. Further more, Ward has shrugged off Kessler’s and Froch’s best shots and should be able to stand up to Kovalev’s heavy shots as well.

And heres something else to consider. We can all agree that a younger Hopkins would have beaten Kovalev and hasn’t Ward been compared to Hopkins? Only that he’s faster and more athletic than Bhop ever was. So I’m really certain that Ward will not only out box Kovalev but he’ll also work his way past Kov’s power punches and beat him up and down on the inside. Ward by UD or maybe even late stoppage. Trust me on this one.

Some other points and questions regarding Ward and the light heavies.

1. Why is Ward so strongly hated outside of Oakland? He doesn’t talk trash nor is he a racist. I’ve never known him to disrespect anyone outside the ring. Nor is he another John Ruiz when it comes to fighting. Boxers like BHop, Vlad Klitschko and Floyd Mayweather clinched far more than Ward ever does. So I just don’t get it with these rants about Ward being a runner or a hugger.

2. Speaking of the anti Ward craze, is his ongoing squawk-fest with Triple G even real or is it just another media creation to further downplay SOG. All the times I heard Ward being interviewed I barely even hear him talk about GGG. Nor have I once heard GGG say anything about Ward. Just like I don’t play into the myth that SOG has ducked GGG since that fight was never going to happen. Ward has long outgrown the super middleweight division and GGG has no intentions at this point at fighting above middleweight.

3. Supposed Ward fought Dawson at 175 back in 2012 instead of 168. How do you think that would have played out. I still think that Ward would have still won only by UD, maybe even beaten Adonis Stevenson in 2013 and probably still holding the lineal title as of now and still getting ready to defend against Kovalev.

4. What if Carl Foch stayed active and was the one challenging Kovalev. Providing off course that all the wear and tear didn’t catch up to him, I think that Froch would have survived some pretty heavy shots and come back to score a late stoppage. And for the record I would have pictured Froch-Stevenson going the same way.

5. If Ward wins as I predicted will we see Ward-Stevenson?

Enjoy the fight. – Dave Wares

Thanks Dave. I’m sure I will. I’ll start with your five (mostly hypothetical) questions:

1. Why is Ward so strongly hated outside of Oakland? I don’t think he’s hated. He’s just guarded and not the warmest personality out there, so a lot of fans have a hard time connecting with him. I think his inactivity and devote Christianity are also factors in his inability to “crossover” so far. If he wins in impressive fashion on Saturday, I think he will experience a significant boost in popularity in the U.S. and maybe the U.K.

2. Speaking of the anti Ward craze, is his ongoing squawk-fest with Triple G even real or is it just another media creation to further downplay SOG. I think it’s more of a rivalry between the nuttier fans of each fighter than anything else. I don’t think the media is “out to get” or seeks to “downplay” Ward.

3. Supposed Ward fought Dawson at 175 back in 2012 instead of 168. How do you think that would have played out? I still would have favored Ward to win but I think the fight would have been more competitive (and Ward’s victory would have been more significant).

I still think that Ward would have still won only by UD, maybe even beaten Adonis Stevenson in 2013 and probably still holding the lineal title as of now and still getting ready to defend against Kovalev. Maybe. That’s a lot of “What Ifs” to consider there, Dave. I might have to consult Uatu The Watcher.

4. What if Carl Foch stayed active and was the one challenging Kovalev? The Cobra would have his work cut out for him. But I wouldn’t count him out.

Providing off course that all the wear and tear didn’t catch up to him, I think that Froch would have survived some pretty heavy shots and come back to score a late stoppage. And for the record I would have pictured Froch-Stevenson going the same way. I don’t know, Dave. I think I’d favor Kovalev. Froch might be able to wear down Stevenson, but I can also envision “Superman” clipping him early. What do you think, Uatu?

5. If Ward wins as I predicted will we see Ward-Stevenson? I doubt it. There are network (HBO/Showtime) and promotional (Jay Z/Al Haymon) barriers/beefs that would likely prevent that unification showdown.

Even though the Super 6 was a few years back Ward still has the overall better resume and has faced down superior opposition. Kessler, Froch and Dawson in particular. You can certainly make that argument, just keep in mind that those fights were at 168 pounds (and that they happened more than “a few” years back – Kessler was late 2009, Froch was five years ago).

Further more, Ward has shrugged off Kessler’s and Froch’s best shots and should be able to stand up to Kovalev’s heavy shots as well. I don’t know about that. I don’t think Kessler or Froch possessed the power that Kovalev has.

We can all agree that a younger Hopkins would have beaten Kovalev and hasn’t Ward been compared to Hopkins? I don’t agree that a younger Hopkins would have automatically beaten Kovalev. He may have been able to, or maybe it just would have been a more competitive loss. Hopkins lost every round to Kovalev. If it was a close loss, like his split decision to Joe Calzaghe, I’d agree that a younger version of B-Hop would have likely beat him. Ward has indeed been compared to Hopkins, and while both are master technicians, their styles are a bit different because Ward possesses more natural talent/athleticism and had an extensive amateur career. The prime Hopkins had a rougher, grittier and more active/offensive style.

Only that he’s faster and more athletic than Bhop ever was. Yeah, but is his chin as good as Hopkins’? Is he as durable?

So I’m really certain that Ward will not only out box Kovalev but he’ll also work his way past Kov’s power punches and beat him up and down on the inside. Ward by UD or maybe even late stoppage. Trust me on this one. I don’t trust anyone’s prediction on this fight. Not even my man Uatu.

Email Fischer at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @dougiefischer