Photo by Naoki Fukuda

THE GHOST IS BEING DISCOUNTED

Doug,

I was shocked reading over the latest Fight Picks: Who Wins Keith Thurman vs. Robert Guerrero. Nobody!? Nobody was willing to throw their hat in with The Ghost? Are the odds this skewed toward One Time? I refuse to believe that this is such a gross mismatch. Not only should Guerrero be considered a live dog, I think this is more like a 60/40 fight. In favor of Thurman no doubt, but it won’t be a shutout. You mentioned in your Monday bag that, “More than a few boxing insiders are picking The Ghost to pull an ‘upset special.'” But it seems to me that when it boils down to publicly saying that they turtle up.

If you had to envision the upset special, how do you think it will play out? Here are my observations:

Keith Thurman is a big, fast welterweight, but doesn’t have supernatural (ie. Money, Pacman, or King Khan) speed. Guerrero, used to the frenetic pace of the lower weight classes, uses movement and timing to disrupt Thurman’s rhythm and speed. Guerrero earns Thurman’s respect. In my opinion The Ghost has carried the extra weight well and has good pop for a welterweight. His experience and timing enables him to move Thurman into more than a few solid shots, visibly rocking Thurman once or twice.

Once Guerrero gets One Time’s respect, One Time uses much more lateral movement and ring generalship to try and work his strategy…BUT Guerrero’s pressure, while not great, keeps One Time on the move and allows him to pile up a points victory.

Prediction: Guerrero by majority, but clear in the eyes of fans, decision. – Dave

I was a little bit surprised that nobody among the 17 “insiders” that were polled for RingTV.com’s Fight Picks predicted a victory for Guerrero given The Ghost’s edge in experience and underrated technique, but my hunch is that most folks view Thurman as the more natural welterweight, as well as the more gifted athlete.

Could we be overestimating Thurman’s speed and power? Yeah, we could be. However, I think Thurman’s got more than raw athletic talent working for him. I think he’s a smart (and versatile) boxer. And though Thurman may not be as battle tested as Guerrero, but he’s got good experience against rugged grinders/brawlers like Jesus Soto Karass and Diego Chaves. He broke those tough dudes down to late stoppages. I don’t think he’ll do that to Guerrero, but I think he’ll do enough to earn a clear decision.

I guess I was wrong about “more than a few boxing insiders picking Guerrero.” My pal Steve Kim is the only member of the media I know who is loud and proud about picking The Ghost to pull the upset special. The others picking Guerrero are hardcore fans that I know through Twitter.

I don’t think it’s impossible for Guerrero to beat Thurman, but for that to happen he needs the undefeated Floridian to commit to battling it out in the trenches for the duration of the fight. If that were to happen, I can see Guerrero sucking it up and dishing it out en route to outworking the younger fighter. But I don’t see Thurman standing and slugging it out like Yoshihiro Kamegai, or repeatedly going to the ropes as Andre Berto did. I see Thurman using his legs and his impressive hand-eye coordination to do what he’s gotta do to get the ‘W.’ Guerrero can try to apply pressure all he wants, but he’s not an expert at cutting off the ring.

GUERRERO’S GOTTA GO

Hey Doug-E,

My thoughts on Thurman-Guerrero. As far as I’m concerned homie, it’s Thurmo’s fight to win. Guerrero already made his undeserved millions waltzing around with Floyd Mayweather. And really dude, to think that Guerrero got paid the big bucks to do absolutely nothing during that “fight” and meanwhile if any of us stood around like that on the job looking stupid we would suddenly find ourselves marching to the unemployment office. The other thing that irked me is that better and bigger-name fighters from Amir Khan to Tim Bradley to Lucas Matthysse may never get the shot at Floydsy’s world welterweight title. And yeah, I previously ripped guys like Khan and Bradley like the internet troll that I am, but I’ll be the first to tell ya that those two are full levels above the so-called Ghost.

Going back to Thurmo. Whether we think he’s overrated or not, I know this much: The dude’s certainly no Andre Berto. He’s better than Berto ever was, which ain’t saying too much I know. But that just brings us back to how overrated Guerrero was in the first place. Sure he busted up Berto pretty good but got banged up pretty good himself. Just like he got busted up fighting some unknown Japanese guy named Kamegai. Nor am I buying into this nonsense about Guerrero’s supposedly indestructible chin. What’s with everyone talking like this guy’s the second coming of Antonio Margarito. Hey, little Floydsy had Guerrero really hurt with the one single punch he did throw in that fight. If Floyd had even an ounce of killer instinct Guerrero would have been finished off right there. And Floyd’s certainly no Felix Trinidad. Actually, I think that Diego Chaves is a stronger, tougher guy than Guerrero. He proved that by giving both Rios and Bradley fits. And didn’t Thurmo stop Chaves around the 9th or 10th round? So it’s certainly not inconceivable that Thurman gives us a real treat by knocking Guerrero the f__k out. And besides, Guerrero’s overly holier-than-thou rants makes him sound like a total moron.

So once again homie, I’m going with Thurmo by either KO or at least a commanding UD win and then hopefully onward to fight real contenders like Maidana and Provodnikov. Later dude. – Captain Ron

You make some valid points, Cap (as even internet trolls occasionally do). Guerrero is a bit overrated at 147 pounds (he’s basically fought Mayweather and three meat heads). He’s not invulnerable. And it can be argued that Thurman’s been in with bigger, stronger, harder-punching guys (such as Chaves, Soto Karass and Carlos Quintana).

However, nobody should underestimate Guerrero (least of all Thurman). While Guerrero’s welterweight resume doesn’t read like that of Jose Napoles, he’s got solid championship-level experience from his years as a featherweight, junior lightweight and lightweight.

His real weight class should probably be 140 pounds, but the dude is so ridiculously tough that he can hang with welterweights that can crack. I’m not saying Ghost has a Chuvaloesque chin. He can be hurt. But his conditioning and will (and pride) always keep him in the fight.

And while Thurman’s been in with some big strong dudes, they either lacked Guerrero’s technique (as Soto Karass does), his experience (as Chaves did at the time), or his passion (as Quintana did at that stage of his career).

Also, keep in mind that Thurman’s chin isn’t made of granite. He’s been down before. And he was rocked in his first round against slow-as-molasses Soto Karass.

I think Thurman wins tomorrow night, but I don’t think anyone should s__t on Guerrero’s chances.

As for Thurmy’s future, I can definitely see a clash with Maidana. I don’t see him locking horns with Provo or any other non-Haymon fighter for the next two or three years.

PBC ON NBC

Hi Doug,

I’m excited for this week’s fights on national television. I really don’t care about the actual fights though. I think the Adrien Broner fight is a showcase fight (they choose John Molina for a reason, you’ll see) and that Guerrero won’t be competitive with Thurman (I also think they saw something in his last fight that led them to believe that he’s an easy target for the streaking Thurmanator). I could be wrong of course, but I seriously doubt it. The reason I’m excited is the actual event and broadcast. Al Michaels, Marv Albert, Ray Leonard, just listening to those guys on the same broadcast calling a fight will immediately bring us back to the golden age of boxing on free TV. That alone is exciting for me, I’m sure you’ll get goose bumps too.

As for the actual matchups that are being given to us in the first two shows on NBC, the only one I feel intrigued about is Andy Lee vs Peter Quillin. I do think Lee can KO Kid Chocolate and looking forward for that. Danny Garcia vs Lamont Peterson to me is a mismatch. Peterson is by far one of the most overrated boxers in a long time (along with his victim Khan, from who he got that reputation from). Garcia will dominate him and expose him. Everything else seems to be very Haymon like. I just hope we get good fights and people like it. Broner should be fun, I hope it’s an interesting exciting fight.

Some fantasy matchups:

Yuri Arbachakov vs Chocolatito

Yuri Arbachakov vs Estrada

Antonio Esparragoza vs Erik Morales

Myung Woo Yuh vs Humberto Gonzalez

Raul “Jibaro” Perez vs Nonito Donaire

Ruben Olivares vs Erik Morales

Thanks! – Juan Valverde, Tijuana

Glad you hear you so pumped up for a boxing broadcast (without actually being into the fights).

I gotta be honest with you, Juan; I’m anticipating the fights a lot more than the production value of the telecasts and the commentating.

I definitely favor Thurman, Broner and Garcia to win their matchups but I don’t think they’re in “soft.” Broner is a more talented boxer than Molina but I didn’t see a world-beater in his last three fights. I think Broner’s a hell of a lot more overrated than a battle-tested veteran like Peterson. (And for me, Peterson earned his reputation with his first title bout against Tim Bradley; not his first title victory against Khan.) Bottom line: Broner’s there to be hit and Molina is a home-run hitter. I’m looking forward to that fight and the Garcia-Peterson bout.

I’m not expecting too much from Michaels, Albert and Leonard because I know they’re all “rusty” when it comes to boxing commentary and I also know that they’re not as familiar with Al Haymon’s players as they were the top dogs of the 1980s. But I have little doubt that they’ll gel together and be brought up to speed by their third or fourth broadcast.

Still, it’s all about the fights for me. If the fights are good, everything else falls into place.

Your mythical matchups:

Yuri Arbachakov vs Chocolatito – Chocolatito by close decision

Yuri Arbachakov vs Estrada – Arbachakov by close decision

Antonio Esparragoza vs Erik Morales – Esparragoza by close decision

Myung Woo Yuh vs Humberto Gonzalez – Yuh by close decision

Raul “Jibaro” Perez vs Nonito Donaire – Donaire by controversial decision

Ruben Olivares vs Erik Morales – Olivares by decision

CHANGE OF TRAINERS

Hi Dougie,

Just a question (sorry to bring more attention to “The Fight”) about Mayweather’s change of trainer from Roger to Senior. What do you think is the main reason or reasons that Floyd benefits from with this change? Is it the style? Is it that he’s a southpaw? Will we see an older Floyd that they believe is perfect to get Manny out of his rhythm or own plan? This is why we have you here to tell us what we don’t see! Thanks for your time. – Malcolm, Dublin, Ireland

Mayweather didn’t switch from Roger to his father for the big May 2 showdown. He did it after his tougher-than-expected tangle with Miguel Cotto in 2012. He got hit more than he wanted to in that fight, so he finally swallowed his pride and brought back in Daddy, who is the more defense-minded trainer. Roger was the more offense-minded fighter, and he was like that as a trainer, too. The switch seemed to work well for Floyd, who appeared sharper than ever during his decision victories over Guerrero and Canelo in 2013.

However, Maidana was able to put hands on Mayweather even with Floyd Sr. training him last year. Freddie Roach says Mayweather is more vulnerable with his father training him, but that could be the usual mind games/s__t talk that is to be expected from both sides of this promotion.

I don’t know if Mayweather’s better off with Roger or Floyd Sr. I know he throws more punches during his fights (and tends to go to the ropes more) when Roger is the head trainer, and I know he moves a lot more and is more conservative with his offense when his dad is in charge. There are pros and cons with either trainer against Pacquiao.

SUPER FLYWEIGHT SUPER FIGHT?

One question, are we going to get Roman Gonzalez vs Naoya Inoue this year!? Roman just fought at 115 and word is he will fight on HBO next. – Jordan, NC

I’ve heard that Gonzalez is in the running to be the co-featured bout to Gennady Golovkin’s next HBO appearance (which looks like it’s going to be against Tureano Johnson on May 16 at The Forum in Inglewood, California).

OK, first of all, if it’s true that my two favorite fighters are going to co-headline a card in my backyard, I’m going to celebrate my birthday (May 20) four days early, ’cause that’s a gift from boxing heaven.

The perfect fight for HBO and Los Angeles fight fans would be a rematch between Gonzalez and Juan Estrada. They’re the two best flyweights in the world (and hold most of the major titles). Gonzalez beat Estrada in the hell of a fight (in L.A.) in late 2012 (at junior flyweight). The popularity of both fighters has grown since then and I think the rematch would help draw fans to The Forum.

I don’t know if that fight can be made for May 16, but I know HBO is interested in making it happen. So if it doesn’t happen in May, it could happen later in the year, which means our boy Inoue (who is currently healing from a hand injury) will have to wait his turn. That’s OK. He’s only 21. Time is on his side. Plus, I’d like to see Chocolatito prove that he’s the man at 112 pounds before going up to 115 pounds.

PRO BRITISH RANT

Hi Dougie
I know after a few of my email’s you’re probably sick of my ranting but screw it I’m sick of Americans hating and constantly ripping on the English boxers. So Carl Froch thinks Andre Ward should come to England. Well screw Ward! He’s a brilliant fighter who fights dirty and yet is petrified to travel to fight the best. Froch, Ricky Hatton and Joe Calzaghe all travelled to fight the best and yet Ward is such a self righteous SOB that he refuses to. Screw him and screw that woman beater Mayweather. Kell Brook, Froch and Quigg will never be the best but I guarantee you that they will never duck a challenge. This was longer than I thought. Have a good one, dude. – Pete Sussex, UK

I will Pete.

There’s not much for me to add to your rant, other than I agree that the best boxers in the world should be willing to fight anywhere on the planet provided the money is right and the promotion is professional and fair.

The biggest possible fight for Ward right now is a rematch with Froch – if the bout takes place in England. I understand Ward declaring to the world that he won’t be “dictated” to, but he can’t call all of the shots just because he won the first fight and is undefeated. Froch has done a lot more than Ward since losing the Super Six final, and the Nottingham native’s stature in the sport has grown accordingly. He’s going to have some pull in the negotiations. It is what it is. And both men will make more money fighting in the UK than in the U.S. Again, it is what it is.

Anyway, I look forward to Brook returning to the U.S. for a major fight, as well as Quigg’s American debut. And if Froch can get that elusive Chavez showdown later this year, that’s a fight I’ll definitely try to be ringside for.

ONE-LOSS BOXERS

Hi Dougie,

Two comments with questions attached regarding boxers with one defeat on their record. 1) Everyone seems high on Euby Jr again after this weekend in spite of his loss to Billy Joe Saunders in November. I think he could follow a similar path to James DeGale who looked a little sluggish early in his career but whose razor thin loss to big rival George Groves seems to have given him the kick up the arse needed to get better and become a player on the world stage. I would now pick DeGale to win a rematch and think that before long, Euby could well avenge his only loss as well. Do you think it can be useful for a boxer to take a loss (but not a beating) early in their career to give them extra motivation and is there anyone you can think of historically who used an early-ish loss to motivate a great career? Conversely are there any boxers who you think could have used a close defeat early on and were therefore unprepared for a beating when they stepped up to the highest level?

2) A loss can of course have the negative effect that you become a forgotten figure and nobody epitomises this in the current boxing scene quite like Alexander Povetkin. Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury appear to have marketed themselves as the clear number 1 and 2 contenders to Baby Bro’s crown as the top dog at heavyweight but I think I would have to slightly favour the Russian over either of them in the highly unlikely event that such a fight was made. I think Kubrat Pulev would give them both hell as well in spite of his rather strange jab. Who would you pick in a four way tournament between the old and new pretenders to Wladimir?

All the best. – Sir Laurence of Nottingham

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and questions, Sir Laurence.

I’m not sure who would emerge as the winner of a four-man tourney between Povetkin, Pulev, Wilder and Fury. I guess it depends on the draw, because I can see Povetkin wearing down Wilder, but getting outmaneuvered by Fury, whereas I can envision Wilder clipping Fury early. I see Pulev giving Povetkin fits, but not Fury. I see Wilder decapitating Pulev. Styles make fights.

I agree that Povetkin is being overlooked by most fans. He’s arguably the No. 1 contender behind the champ (and that’s where the Russian is rated by THE RING).

I absolutely think it can be a good thing for a talented young boxer to drop a decision early in his career. Often that loss helps ground them and motivates them to dedicate themselves even more to their craft. A recent example would be Nonito Donaire, who lost his second pro fight (a five-round decision to a journeyman), and then won his next 30 bouts (which included five major world titles in three weight classes, plus THE RING belt at 122 pounds).

I think Chris Eubank Jr. improved/matured as a fighter going 12 rounds with Saunders, and the split-decision loss didn’t hurt his marketability or stature in the sport at all. Same deal with DeGale’s loss to Groves. I too would favor Eubank and DeGale in rematches.

A boxer who probably could have used a non-punishing loss early in his career is Fernando Vargas because the brash California technician-puncher really thought he was invincible going into his showdown with Felix Trinidad and that brutally classic confrontation drastically cut short his promising career. Now that I think of it, had Vargas lost a close decision to Winky Wright (which a lot of folks would have agreed with), it would have served him well because it would have forced him to clean up the craziness in his training camps and it probably would have given the people around him the leverage to talk him into putting off the Trinidad fight for at least another year.

JUNIOR AND FREDDIE

Hey Doug,

Hope you’re nice and warm in California. It’s freezing and snowing here in Maryland. Anyway, what do you expect from Chavez Jr. vs Fonfara? I want Chavez to do well because for all his faults, I like the guy. He’s comic gold on 24/7 with the pink underwear and when he takes boxing seriously, is a pretty decent fighter. Personally, I don’t think his opponent is his biggest obstacle, but making weight.

And what is your take on Roach saying GGG is a prospect, but no Marvelous Marvin? I think Roach is doing his best to promote Miguel Cotto. Thanks as always man. Stay safe. – Robert from Ashton, MD

I hate to rub it in but the weather has been beautiful in Southern California in recent weeks (thanks in part to a few days of rain).

Anyway, I expect a good, rough light heavyweight scrap with Junior and Fonfara share the ring. They’re both tough hombres. I don’t think the Poland-born Chicagoan will be a walk in the park for Chavez (who I also like and agree is a decent fighter when he’s in-shape and focused). Yes, weight will be a major challenge for Chavez given his layoff, but his new trainer Joe Goossen is very good at getting fighters in top shape (even the lazy ones).

What’s my take on Roach’s GGG comments? It’s just Freddie talking a little s__t. Nothing wrong with that. We all know Golovkin is way more than a prospect but most of us would agree that he shouldn’t be compared to Hagler yet.

‘GOOD BOY’ SHOULD SAY GOOD-BYE TO MIDDLEWEIGHT

Hi Dougie!

Second time writing, and hope you answer again. I’ll be simple, as a fan of GGG I think he should move up now. Why? He is 32, almost 33, and there is no one at Middleweight left to fight. Geale and Murray were the best ones, and he beat them easily. Quillin, Lemieux, c’mon those guys are jokes, Golovkin would toy with them.

What about Canelo or Cotto? Canelo has never fought at Middleweight, and I think Cotto wont fight again at 160, I think he is giving up that belt (understandable, he is a natural welterweight). And let’s be honest, they present no threat at all for Golovkin.

Back to my point, he should move up to 168. I would love to see GGG against Abraham, Groves, DeGeale, Chavez Jr, Froch. Those would be marketable fights, and great fights. By the way I think GGG would beat them all. Ward? He hasn’t fought in a year so I won’t put him in that list yet. If he actually comes back to the ring, that would be a good fight too.

Cheers. – Federico, from Buenos Aires, Argentina

I hear ya, Federico, but let me ask you this:

If Golovkin were to abdicate the middleweight titles he now holds and make a formal announcement that he’s going to campaign at super middleweight from now on, what makes you think that the 168-pound contenders that you mentioned would step up to the plate and fight him?

I don’t see any of them rushing to hop into the ring with GGG. I see them protecting titles they currently hold (Abe), I see them challenging others for major belts (Groves and DeGale), and then making easy title defenses, and I see them fighting each other (Froch and Junior). I don’t see GGG easily getting into the super middleweight mix.

Email Fischer at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @dougiefischer