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Fight picks: Who wins Keith Thurman vs. Robert Guerrero?

Fighters Network
04
Mar
Keith Thurman (L) vs. Leonard Bundu on Dec. 13, 2014. Photo by Ed Mulholland/Golden boy Promotions-Getty Images.

Keith Thurman (L) vs. Leonard Bundu on Dec. 13, 2014. Photo by Ed Mulholland/Golden boy Promotions-Getty Images.

Saturday evening will mark the maiden episode of “Premier Boxing Champions” on NBC, headlined by an intriguing welterweight clash between Keith Thurman and Robert Guerrero.

The Thurman-Guerrero matchup will pit the power-puncher with touted but still largely untested boxing skills in Thurman against a veteran boxer with a proven chin and a tendency to brawl — but lacking one-punch KO power — in Guerrero.

Thurman, 26, enters the bout as one of boxing brightest young fighters, boasting a perfect record of 24-0 (21 knockouts). He won both of his fights last year but sat on the sidelines for nearly eight months because of shoulder trouble. For his comeback, in December, he boxed more cautiously than we’re accustomed to seeing but won a shutout decision over European champion Leonard Bundu.

Former two-weight world champion Guerrero (32-2-1, 18 KOs) enters the bout on the back of an exciting 12-round war against fringe contender Yoshihiro Kamegai last June. That fight ended a 13-month hiatus following a wide, unanimous-decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013.



RingTV.com asked 20 boxing insiders for their picks:


Kenny Adams, trainer of over 25 world champions

Keith Thurman KO Robert Guerrero: I think it’ll be a barnburner. I think it depends on how Guerrero plans to fight him. If he plans to fight him straight up, take it to him, or does he plan to sit back and try to box him? I think Thurman didn’t seem to be right for that last fight (Bundu). I think it depends which one shows up. Thurman will knock Guerrero down and he’ll get the stoppage.

Photo by Craig Bennett

Photo by Craig Bennett

Kevin Cunningham, Trainer of former welterweight titlist Devon Alexander

Keith Thurman W 12 Robert Guerrero: It’s a winnable fight for both guys. I think it’s a great fight for the fans. I don’t know who will win — either guy could win, it’s a pick ’em fight. If I had to pick a winner I’d go Thurman because he’s obviously the bigger puncher. Guerrero’s experienced, a southpaw, knows his way around the ring, he’s a pretty tough guy himself. I don’t know if the fights going the distance or not — it’s such an evenly matched fight it could go either way.

Doug Fischer, editor of RingTV.com

Keith Thurman UD 12 Robert Guerrero: I think Thurman will take the fight to Guerrero and try to check the Californian’s chin early in the bout but when the veteran takes his punch and fires back, he’ll gradually change to hit-and-run tactics. I think Thurman, the bigger, faster, harder punching and more mobile boxer; will pot-shot his way to a somewhat competitive points victory.

Norm Frauenheim, The Ring magazine/www.15rounds.com

Keith Thurman UD 12 Robert Guerrero: Thurman wants a knockout and so does NBC in Al Haymon’s “PBC” debut. A stoppage of Robert Guerrero stamps Thurman as the star he’s projected to be. It’s a good storyline and it works if Guerrero cooperates. He won’t. He won’t win, either. Thurman has too much power and speed. Too much of everything. But Guerrero has never been stopped. His chin and know-how have never betrayed him. In the end, he’ll be there, beaten, but standing.

Jeffrey Freeman, www.KODigest.TV

Keith Thurman UD 12 Robert Guerrero: If this welterweight matchup starts on the inside and stays there, Robert Guerrero will probably win the fight. Close-quarter combat favors Guerrero. If Keith Thurman establishes the distance early and smartly boxes his way to a lead on the scorecards, Guerrero will get increasingly desperate for an inside fight, and increasingly vulnerable to one of Thurman’s well-timed “critical blows” as he tries to close the gap. Counterpunching favors Thurman. Wear and tear could also be a factor for Guerrero against the younger and fresher Thurman. Ultimately, I’d say “One Time” hurts Guerrero more than Guerrero is able to hurt Thurman, and he’ll score more points on his way to an important win over a credible opponent.

Tom Gray, RingTV.com

Keith Thurman TKO 9 Robert Guerrero: Both guys are seriously entertaining fighters and this should be all-out war. My concern for Guerrero is that he’s been catching a lot of punches since the move to welterweight and that habit spells doom against a fighter of Thurman’s renowned punching power. I think “The Ghost” will look to box but he’ll be matched, then hurt, and ultimately taken out by his younger, fresher foe. This is a breakout fight for Thurman, and it’s about time.

Robert Guerrero vs Yoshihiro Kamegai in June 2014. Photo by Naoki Fukuda.

Robert Guerrero vs Yoshihiro Kamegai in June 2014. Photo by Naoki Fukuda.

Lee Groves, RingTV.com

Keith Thurman W 12 Robert Guerrero: Thurman’s all-around game and punching power versus Guerrero’s volume-punching should make for an exciting fight, which will probably go the distance. I think Thurman’s youth, versatility and growing experience will help him to a competitive but solid decision victory.

Andreas Hale, KnockoutNation.com

Keith Thurman UD 12 Robert Guerrero: Keith Thurman is looking for a bit of knockout redemption after failing to dispatch of the 40-year-old Bundu in his previous outing. What some forget was just how dominant Thurman looked against the awkward Bundu while deploying some rangy boxing to cruise to victory. Guerrero, while certainly a higher degree of difficulty, will struggle with Thurman’s size as Thurman keeps “The Ghost” on the outside while sending a few reminders of his thudding power on the inside. Guerrero will show a ton of heart and keep it competitive but lacks the size and speed to prevent Thurman from taking a unanimous decision.

Amir Khan, welterweight contender

Keith Thurman late stoppage Robert Guerrero: I think this matchup is going to be a very exciting fight because you have two come-forward, all-action styles. Usually Thurman likes to press a fight but in this one I can see him being more of the boxer. I don’t think he’s going to be too gung-ho at the outset but is going to pick his moments when to engage with Guerrero. I favor Thurman in this fight and think he will come out with the win, probably via a late stoppage. I expect their styles to mix well to produce an entertaining matchup.

John Molina, junior welterweight contender

That’s very intriguing fight. They are both my friends. I’m going to enjoy that fight. I imagine Guerrero would be the underdog given the momentum that Thurman has built up but if he is an underdog, he’s a very live one. Thurman is the young hungry guy. Some people might say he’s not battle-tested yet. And other people say that somebody like Guerrero will bring out the best in him. I think Guerrero is in every fight, he’s a former world champion. If Thurman is not what everyone is expecting him to be, Guerrero will be the guy to be able to reveal that to everybody, to expose that. I think Thurman, Guerrero, Broner, and myself are going to set the bar very high for inaugural show back on NBC primetime.

Sergio Mora, former junior middleweight titleholder

Keith Thurman KO Robert Guerrero: Thurman is the bigger puncher, the naturally bigger fighter; I think Guerrero coming up from featherweight is going to have a hard time adjusting to the power. (Note: Guerrero held the IBF featherweight title in 2007-2008 and the junior lightweight title in 2009. He has fought four times at welterweight, starting in 2012.) He can adjust to the skill easily, I think he might even have more skill and experience than Thurman but a punch is a punch and a chin is a chin, we’re going to have to see how Guerrero takes the punch of a bigger Keith Thurman. It’s like me going up to cruiserweight and fighting and trying to take them punches. I can’t do that. That’s a good analogy for Robert Guerrero going up four weight classes against a big puncher. If he can take the shots early, then I can see Guerrero pulling off the upset but it only takes one time, just like Keith Thurman’s nickname, to see if Guerrero can take that punch. It’s going to be a different story and I can see Keith Thurman knocking out Guerrero just because he’s too big and strong.

Diego M. Morilla, XNSports.com, RingTV, HBO.com

Keith Thurman KO 9 Robert Guerrero: It will take time for Thurman to land his vaunted right cross against a tricky, elusive southpaw like Guerrero, who will probably keep Thurman busy with his aggressive counterpunching and his respectable speed. But Thurman is as determined as they come, and his power is impossible to deny. Guerrero has never been stopped, but he’ll be facing a tall, strong natural welterweight on a search-and-destroy mission, and I’d be surprised to see him go the distance.

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Photo by Naoki Fukuda

Kenny Porter, father and trainer of former welterweight champion Shawn Porter

Keith Thurman W 12 Robert Guerrero: I see a close fight but I see a competitive fight. I see Keith Thurman winning a decision.

Shawn Porter, former IBF welterweight champion

I’m not really one to make a prediction, especially in the sport of boxing. One punch changes the outcome of the entire fight and we have “One Time” Thurman and I think his name speaks for itself — it just takes one punch for him and we’ve seen that in the past. But I do think this should be a very good fight. I think this is a big step up for Keith; up until this point the fighters he’s fought haven’t been as big a name as Robert Guerrero. I do expect him to look very good against Robert. His power and his youth and his boxing ability that he’s shown is going to play a major role. As far as Robert Guerrero goes I’m looking for him to show although he’s up there in age, he still has the youth in there and can box with the big guns. I think overall this should be a good interesting fight. I can’t even pick a winner, I wanna sit back and just observe and learn and see what both these guys have left.

John J. Raspanti, Maxboxing.com/Doghouseboxing.com/KO Monthly Magazine

Keith Thurman W 12 Robert Guerrero: One of the oldest themes in boxing will be on display this Saturday night when undefeated up-and-comer Keith Thurman meets veteran Robert Guerrero. Thurman outpointed Leonard Bundu last December. He scored a knockdown, but was forced to go the distance. The 31-year-old Guerrero went to war nine months ago with Yoshihiro Kamegai in a Fight of the Year candidate. He won, but it was hardly easy. In 2013, he lost a wide 12-round decision to Floyd Mayweather Jr. For me, the Mayweather fight is the key to this Saturday’s matchup. Boxing is all about styles. Thurman is the quicker boxer. Guerrero will make him fight, but Thurman should be able to use his versatility and box. I see Thurman winning a hard-fought 12-round decision.

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Photo by Naoki Fukuda

Cliff Rold, BoxingScene.com

Keith Thurman KO Robert Guerrero: After looking a little blah last time out, look for Thurman to make a statement against his biggest name foe to date.

Michael Rosenthal, THE RING magazine

Keith Thurman KO 10 Robert Guerrero: I think a lot of Robert Guerrero, a skillful, experienced and extremely tough fighter. I just don’t think he was born with the tools of Keith Thurman, who I believe has the potential to climb onto pound-for-pound lists. He’s quick, powerful and seems to be driven. Bottom line in this fight: Guerrero will give a brave effort but Thurman’s next-level class ultimately will be the difference. Thurman by KO 10.

Marlon Starling, former WBA welterweight champion

Keith Thurman is young, he has some skills but he’s still green around the edges. It can be a good fight. For Keith Thurman it’s more of a fight than a boxing match, he wants to go and prove something, you have to be smart in this game to stay around awhile. I think it’ll be a back-and-forth fight for a little while. I think somebody is going to get stopped, but I’m not picking any winners. I can’t pick ’em. I’m one of those guys, when I was fighting I’d never bet on fights, the only time I could control and see what’s going on is in a fight I was fighting.

Errol Spence, 2012 Olympian and current welterweight prospect

Keith Thurman SD 12 Robert Guerrero: I think the fight will be a tough fight; I think Keith Thurman should box and move and if he stands with Robert Guerrero that’s where Guerrero likes to fight, inside. Thurman has to move around and box and pick his shots. If he stands there he could get hurt, or he could get dropped. As long as he boxes I think Keith Thurman will win but if he stands there and fights I’d say Robert Guerrero wins. My prediction is Keith Thurman will win a split decision.

Dominic Verdin, RingTV.com

Keith Thurman KO Robert Guerrero inside 12: Keith Thurman is without a doubt the bigger, faster and much more powerful welterweight of the two (Guerrero has not scored a KO since 2010). Robert Guerrero has faced the much better competition with only one loss at welterweight. Although, both men have shown the willingness to engage and absorb punches: it is Thurman who has much more to prove and to lose. We’ve seen how far Guerrero has come and there’s not much more room for growth. Thurman will have his way early in what will be a good scrap of fistic prowess. The middle rounds, Guerrero will continue to pluck away with good upper body movement and a healthy dose of body punching. Thurman will box off the back heel in the later rounds, scoring at will and dropping “The Ghost” from exhaustion. The 12th round will be the end with Guerrero holding on for dear life; Thurman wanting to appease his fans with the knockout will live up to his promise and much more.

Final tally: 17-0 (and three undecided) in favor of Keith Thurman to win Saturday’s welterweight showdown with Robert Guerrero.

Questions and/or comments can be sent to Anson at [email protected] and you can follow him at www.twitter.com/AnsonWainwright

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