PREDICTION TIME

What’s up Dougie,
A big weekend in boxing is coming with what looks to be an interesting card this Saturday. What are you predictions for the 4 big fights?

I am going to stray from the pack and go with Juan Diaz to eke out a close decision against Juan Manuel Marquez. It is just a gut feeling. I know most people are supporting the theory that JMM will run thru Diaz again.

I am not sure who to lean with for the Robert Guerrero-Joel Casamayor fight. I have only seen Guerrero fight once, against Malcolm Klassen and he looked really sharp. Even though Casamayor did not look particularly good in his previous fight I have feeling the wily vet will give Guerrero all he can handle and win a decision as well. My next two predictions are not as bold and think Linares will be too much for Juarez and win a dominant decision and Jacobs to thoroughly outpoint Pirog.

I enjoyed your Monday mailbag, particularly the discussion of Margorito’s hand wraps. I personally did not know all of the details in regards to the Tijuana Tornado’s miscalculation before the weigh-ins or mental absence he shows prior to a fight and found your description of Javier Capetillo humorous to say the least. It definitely shed some light on the whole plaster scandal and removed some of the doubt I had believing Margorito did not know about the plaster inserts.

I personally will enjoy the Antonio Margorito fight for as long as it lasts even if I will be wishing Mayweather Jr. was the one staring across the ring at the Filipino speed demon. Frankly, I am a bit sick of hearing reports and blogs stating boxing needs the Mayweather Jr.-Pacquiao fight. It would certainly be nice to watch these pound-for-pound dynamos and future hall of famers square off against one another but I can get just as excited if not more for other future bouts. I wait in great anticipation for fights between Juanma Lopez-Rafael Marquez, Chad Dawson-Jean Pascal, and Arthur Abraham-Carl Froch and hopefully Devon Alexander-Timothy Bradley in January.

One last gripe before I go. Am I only the only one getting a little sick of the jr. welterweight trash talking carousel that goes on after any of the big 4 (Alexander, Bradley, Maidana, and Khan) put on a pair of gloves? They seem more content to fight their battles over the dreaded social nightmare known as Twitter than in the ring. I hope they spend the year of 2011 fighting round robin style via Hearns, Hagler, Duran, and Leonard in the late 70s / 80s. And if they are going to talk trash, at least do it with some machismo ala Roberto Duran, “Pipino Cuevas can suck myÔǪ” well I’m sure you know the rest. Maybe I am just a wishful fan. — Mike

Yes, you are wishful, but you also sound like a real fan. (What’s the litmus test? If you’re already over Mayweather-Pacquiao, you’re true to the game.)

I’m glad somebody is picking Diaz because I think he’s got a shot and I believe he’ll fight a better fight this time around. If he’s a little more careful in the early rounds by working his jab and using lateral movement and he begins to press the attack midway through the bout I think he can go the distance with Marquez and there’s a chance that he can out-hustle the vet down the stretch. However, I gotta go with the champ by unanimous decision. I think he’s going to draw Diaz into a fight and land the harder, more accurate punches over the second half of the bout.

MARQUEZ-DIAZ II

Whats up Doug?
Saturday night is gonna rock big time. I’m buying this one in HD for sure!

First of all. Marquez will win the rematch against Diaz, maybe easier than he won the first fight. Yes he took a little beating from Mayweather and went up and down in weight, he’s also a year older, but I believe that even in decline he is far superior to Diaz in skill.

Diaz on the other hand has basically lost 2 fights to Paul Malignaggi, who was KO’d by Hatton before that. Nuff said there. Forget all the talk of him being more technical, he’s gonna do what he’s always done, come forward and throw punches flat footed.

I’m still waiting for the Robert Guerrero thing to happen. If he doesn’t win big on Saturday it will be another setback for him.

Juarez will lose a close fight.

I’ve seen Danny Jacobs once against Ishe smith and I liked his style and action. I have nothing on his opponent other than 16-0 and a pretty good KO ratio (13), so I’d like your help on that one.

One little thing about Pac-Margarito. Everybody is pissed that he is getting this shot at Pacquiao. Well, for years he deserved a shot and no one was giving it to him so this is his payback. That’s how life works I guess. — Steve, Montr├®al

I hadn’t thought about it that way, but you’re right about Margarito being avoided by the high-profile welterweight champs (until Miguel Cotto had the balls to get in there with him). When Margarito was THE RING’s No. 1-rated welterweight none of the champs — from Cory Spinks to Zab Judah to Carlos Baldomir to Floyd Mayweather — wanted to see him in the ring.

Don’t sleep on Diaz, Guerrero or Juarez. I think Linares’ style will trouble the squat, plodding boxer-puncher, but I don’t believe the Japan-based Venezuelan can hurt the proud Texan. Don’t forget that Linares is only one fight removed from being KTFO. He says he’s regained his focus and confidence but let’s what happens when he’s in the ring with a guy looking to blast him. We could see a 133-pound version of Klitschko-Brewster I.
I think Juarez is going to make tomorrow’s fight interesting.

OPTIMISTIC

Hey Dougie,
Haven't written in a while but still read the mailbags, always entertaining.

Just wanted to put my two cents in. Instead of being sad on what’s wrong with this great sport lets focus on the good stuff that is brewing in the near future. I can't wait, we still have the Super Six tourney, the fight this weekend with an awesome fight with a great undercard for once. Gotta give Golden Boy props for that. Hopefully, they get a good response so we can keep getting these types of undercards.

I can’t wait for the potential match ups between the Marquez-Diaz winner and the top 140 pounders and Michael Katsidis.

The potential of future match ups and already signed fights is what keeps me optimistic about this sport. We do not always get what we want. All we have to do is make it known so that we do. Closed mouths do not get fed and closed wallets do not pay anyone so lets just make sure that when we are catered to, that we show our appreciation. I know I will. Thanks for taking your time to reading this message like always. — Luis, San Diego

I’d be happy to get a Marquez-Katsidis showdown or even a Diaz-Katsidis rematch out of Saturday’s main event. I’m not that into the Marquez-Diaz winner fighting the 140-pound young guns. Those cats are too big, strong and fast for either lightweight, and I think their last bouts (vs. Mayweather and Malignaggi) proved that Marquez and Diaz are not the same above 135 pounds. I’d rather watch Bradley, Khan and Alexander fight each other than slightly faded lightweights.

Personally, I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s card. For the first time in MANY years, I plan to be seated ringside for an entire card. I want to watch heavyweight hopeful Seth Mitchell, super middleweight prospect George Groves, the Bika-Mendy 168-pound title eliminator and Frankie Gomez fight live before the pay-per-view portion of the card begins.

EVERYONE LOVES MANNY

Doug,
If Manny Pacquiao insists on letting Bob Arum pie piper him into devouring another Top Rank retread, for what were being sold on as an “8th World Title in an 8th Weight Class” for a 154lb alpahbet title, shouldn't it atleast be contracted as a 154lb fight?!? This guy is manipulating the system every bit as much as Flyod Maywether did, the differance is everyone loves Manny so we turn a largely blind eye to these shenanigans. Pacquiao decides to challenge Cotto for his 147lb crown but in reality that fight takes place closer to the 140lb limit. So if he can fight at 150 against Margacheato, why couldn't he compete at 147 against Cotto? Can you imagine Ray Leonard (the greatest fighter of the last 30yrs) insisting Marvin Hagler show up for their Middleweight fight at 155lbs like Pacquiao has taken to doing or deciding to show up for his first fight against Roberto Duran 5lbs above the contracted weight limit like Maywether did? Although Leonard probably could have showed up weighing 175lbs that night and still lost, Duran was THAT good in Montreal.

You brought up a great point in your last mailbag comparing Maywether and Pacquiao to Whitaker and Chavez and how you respect the 90's pound for pound rulers more than our current bloated kings. I couldn't agree with you more. Lost in the fact that he received controversial nods against Meldrick Taylor, Frankie Randall and the gift draw against Whitaker, is that J.C Superstar took on all three of those guys in the primes of their careers AND he moved up in weight to do so. Whitaker had the balls to take on peaked versions of De La Hoya and Trinidad at 147lbs, even though he was well past his prime — hell, he still schools De La Hoya everytime I watch that fight. Maywether and Pacquiao could learn a lot from their predecessors……

Re-watched Diaz vs. Marquez I… a couple observations:
-If Diaz had world class power he would have stopped Marquez

-That was the same clutch, incredibly focused adjustment we saw Marquez make in the first Pacquiao fight, when it looked like he would be physically overwhelmed

-If Diaz pulls the rematch out like you have been suggesting he might Doug, its going to be a downhill fight for him then and Marquez is totally shot. The kid just doesn't handle adversity well at all and if Marquez is 80% of the fighter we saw in their first contest, he's going to test the college school boy and thus far when presented with a “Pop-Quiz” (apologies for the shameless pun) he's flunked….

-That fight reminded me so much of De La Hoya-Vargas. — Tom.G

Marquez-Diaz I was De La Hoya-Vargas on speed. De La Hoya-Vargas, by the way, was one of the more memorable fights and nights I’ve had covering this sport. That dramatic bout, along with Barrera-Morales I and Vargas’s brave stand against Tito, is why the Mandalay Bay remains my favorite place to watch a big fight.

Also, I’m sure you’re aware that Ray Leonard was a boyhood boxing idol of mine (along with Muhammad Ali), but that doesn’t mean I’m going to forget about the times he used his stardom and leverage to manipulate the rules of the sport. The Sugarman was not above catchweights. Leonard made light heavyweight beltholder Donny Lalonde come down 168 pounds to get a shot at him and the Canadian still had to put his 175-pound title on the line. Ray was so connected he won a vacant 168-pound belt that night too!

YOUR THOUGHTS (AND MINE) ON MARGARITO

Dougie,
hey man, it's been a long time since i've email you but i continue to read your bags and catch you on FNC whenever i can. I enjoy the work you do for this sport, keep up the great job.

Really quickly, just wanted to say that i was very glad to read your comments from Monday's bag about your take on margarito and his reputation that everyone and their mom has taken a big dump on.
Your comments were almost identical (in theory) to some i made in a blog i wrote the day he fought “la amenaza” garcia back in may. I caught wind of margarito back when you and steve used to hype him up (and for good reason) and i've followed him loyally ever since. I too think he was the victim of capetillo's mad-science and i feel all the backlash he's received is very undeserving.

Anyway, just wanted to share w/ you what i wrote back in may and thought it was cool that a highly respected figure in this sport like yourself had similar thoughts that i had on this whole margarito business… take care man.

HOW COULD HE NOT HAVE KNOWN WHAT WAS GOING IN HIS WRAPS THE NIGHT OF THE MOSLEY FIGHT, IF THAT INDEED WAS THE FIRST TIME THOSE ILLEGAL WRAPS WERE USED?

Folks, do u know how many times a fighter gets his hands wrapped in a week's period, let alone a month, a year or in tony's case, in a 16yr span??? We are talking about thousands and thousands of wrap jobs BY THE SAME TRAINER. Do you honestly think at this point in his career he still watches his hands being wrapped? You've seen it, guys have their headphones on, they are getting rubbed down to relax, they are thinking about the fight. Now you expect tony to all of a sudden question the integrity of his trainer who he saw as a father figure and wonder “are my wraps being done properly?” C'MON, LET'S GET REAL!

HE USED THOSE WRAPS IN THE COTTO FIGHT AND PREVIOUS FIGHTS BEFORE, THAT IS HOW HE WAS KNOCKING GUYS OUT.

In 99% of all boxing jurisdictions in this country, all handwrap materials are supplied brand new by the athletic commission of the state where the fight is taking place. This included las vegas, texas and new jersey (where the cotto fight and most of margarito's fights took place). On top of that, not only are 2 representatives from the athletic commission hired to oversee that the handwraps are done properly but a representative from the opposing team is also there doing the same thing. This means that every single representative on each night of margarito's fights didnt do their job and let something like illegal hand wrapping just slip right past each and every one of them… ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE. — gus g., chicago

Thanks for the kinds words, Gus. I know some of my opinions on Margarito are not very popular or appreciated, but I’m just calling it how I see it based on what I know.