CLUELESS

Dougie,
Nice article on both fighters and what each brings to the table. I'm completely clueless as to who is going to win. They say a good big man beats a good little man, but what about when the big guy is really good and the little guy is great? I'll throw a few bucks on Miguel Cotto since he's the underdog but I have a feeling that the Pacman's combination punching and his feet will win the night in a very entertaining and intense bout.

Thanks for all the hard work Doug; you keep us hardcore boxing fans going through the slow weeks and help us get hyped for the big ones. -- Rob

Thanks for the props and for your 2 cents, Rob. A good big man beats a good little man, but a great little man beats a good -- even a very good -- big man. Is Pacquiao great? I don’t know. If he beats Cotto -- particularly in impressive fashion -- he certainly is.

I KNOW YOUR PICK

Your pick is Miguel Cotto. It was so clear in your article! And I pick him, too. -- Christoy

Don’t be too sure of that, Christoy. I really see this as an even fight, so when I was writing up why Cotto would win I convinced myself that he had it in the bag, but the same thing happened when I went over Pacquiao‘s advantages.

If you really want to know my advanced pick, check out the first edition of the RingTV show. At the end of that video feature RingTV.com co-editor Michael Rosenthal and I give our predictions.

EQUAL CHANCE

Dougie,
Great article for what should be a great fight. As I see it, the man going backwards in the fight will lose (by knockout). Neither fighter fights well going backwards, although Cotto can do it better than
Pacquiao. So will Pacquiao's speed drive Cotto backwards or will Cotto's welterweight size and strength force Pacquiao to the ropes? I don't know. Every fight after the David Diaz I have felt Pacquiao is going to hit a wall against a bigger opponent and every time I have been wrong. At some point that has to happen right?

Whoever wins I am just excited it is finally happening... nothing better than an equal fight between two fighters in their prime. Take care. -- Paul

Good points. I agree that the fighter who gives ground is at a disadvantage, although Cotto has proven to be able to do it against quality opposition (however, not against anyone as fast and unpredictable as Pacquiao). I think Cotto can use his greater strength to back Pacquiao up only if he gets his underrated jab going. I don’t think Pacquiao’s speed will back Cotto up, but I believe the southpaw can use it to catch the Boricua with blind shots that will rock and even drop the bigger man.

Pacquiao didn’t hit a wall against De La Hoya because on top of being faded, Oscar took away his size advantage by following a ridiculous diet during camp and coming in way too light for that fight. Hatton couldn’t impose his size on Pacquiao because… well, he’s Ricky Hatton, he’s a hyper-active spaz who likes to throw punches from 10-feet out.

Cotto’s a different story. He’s not faded, he’s not going to be weight drained (in fact, he’ll probably put on at 10 solid pounds after the weigh-in), and he certainly isn’t a spaz.

PREDICTION TIME!

Doug,
Since you asked for predictions, I felt I should oblige.

I think Pacman will control the early going with his speed and movement, troubling and turning Cotto.

Cotto will keep coming forward and eventually begin to get his timing down. Cotto's body punching will stun and slow down Pacquiao, maybe even dropping him with a left hook to the body. Pacquiao will have his moments unloading with "umpteen ruddy punches" (I love that phrase).

In the late rounds Cotto will take over, using his pressure, strength and combination punching to drive Pacquiao back to the ropes where he can unload, hurting (and if he lands some clean shots, dropping) Mighty Mouse.

Cotto by UD in a Barn burner! -- Matthew

Damn, what a fight! I got up from my desk chair and started cheering midway through your email, Matt.

PACQUIAO MAY QUIT

Dougie,
I agree with what you wrote about the three fights in which the going got tough and Pacquiao looked like he wanted to get going. As much as I'm looking forward to this fight I totally can see a scenario in which Pacquiao either quits or Freddie pulls the plug. The last time Pac-man had to deal with real adversity in a fight he looked to me like he wanted out and Roach wouldn't let him. He's been beating talented, but hand picked guys for a while now and Cotto is a different beast. So I'm making the call. Cotto by TKO (Pac quitting or Roach throwing in the towel).

One more thing - as much as it pains me to write this - David Haye beating John Ruiz is not a given. That's actually a tough first defense. -- J in FLA

David Tua caught Ruiz cold in 1996 when both heavyweights were still prospects. Since then just about everyone else who stepped into the ring with the Quietman, save for Roy Jones and maybe James Toney, has had to go through hell. We’ll see how Haye handles a 37-year-old version of the New England vet.

I’d be surprised if Roach had to throw in the towel and shocked if Pacquiao quit, but if the Filipino icon gets cut I do expect him to be taken out of his game from anywhere to a minute to a couple of rounds. All fighters, even the elite, handle cuts differently. Some can fight through the blood, but most are bothered by it. Pacquiao falls into the majority.

PICKIN' THE PACMAN

I'm picking Pac because I look @ Cotto the same way I think team Pac and Top Rank see him, DAMAGED goods. I thought I was looking at post-traumatic stress disorder in the Clottey fight and think Cheatorito robbed us of a young superstar who's being put out to Pasteur in-house style. Here in Atlanta the fight has the buzz of a preliminary to Pacman vs Mayweather, and truthfully I'd rather see Pac v Valero Saturday night. Peace Doug. -- Kemet the JedI

I think Cotto has lost a step, perhaps even regressed a bit, technically speaking, since the Margarito fight, but do not believe that fight ruined him. If Cotto were really ruined he wouldn’t have dominated second- (maybe third-)tier opponent like Michael Jennings or survived card-carrying badass like Clottey. Cotto’s got something left, I don’t know how much, but whatever he has, he’s going to throw it at Pacquiao Saturday night.

I would never view Saturday’s showdown as a preliminary to a bout with Mayweather because for as long as Cotto-Pacquiao lasts it will be a FIGHT. Mayweather bouts are never fights and I doubt Mayweather will ever fight the PacMan.

If Pacquiao-Valero ever happens that will be a dog fight.

COTTO WINS WITH BODY ATTACK

Doug,
Great breakdown of the Cotto-Pac fight. I'm going with Cotto, I just think his body work will break Pac down. Pacquiao has improved his upper body
movement with Roach, but he is still there to be hit to the body and I just don't like the way he jumps off-balance in with his shots.

I picked Pac to beat both De La Hoya (who I've never been high on) and Hatton, but not for this one. It will be interesting to see what happens to Pac's popularity if he is soundly beaten. I think Roach will throw in the towel on this one. Peace. -- Steve

Wow. Another prediction of Roach tossing in the towel. If that happens I’ll definitely have to credit you and J in Fla. I just don’t see it, though, but I can envision Cotto’s body attack breaking down the Pac-Monster.

Cotto doesn’t just bust up the bodies of his opponents, he injures their arms and shoulders, too. And we all know that when Pacquiao is backed up to the ropes he goes into that high-guard defense that exposes his body and also presents his arms to his antagonist.

We’ll see what happens. If Cotto is able to get to Pacquiao’s body there are going to be a lot of nervous Filipino fans in the MGM Grand’s Garden Arena.

NICE NEUTRAL ANALYSIS

Great neutral analysis if there is one. Two or was it three years ago Bob Arum said that there is only one fighter he would not put in front of Pacquiao and that was Cotto. I agreed with him. And yet two or three years later I also feel this is an even fight. I would like PacMan to win but I don’t think he is a favourite at all. It will be tough and might be a fight of the year.

I was happy Haye won Saturday, that Valuev guy just doesn’t do enough for such a big guy. I thought he lost to Holyfield but no one seemed to care about that controversy at all. Haye-Arreola could be interesting and entertaining. -- Joe K.

“Could be” entertaining? Man, that heavyweight fight has Foreman-Lyle (or perhaps Moorer-Cooper) written all over it. Let’s hope it happens sometime next year.

I agree that Pacquiao-Cotto will be a tough night for both combatants and might be the fight of the year.

WRONG ABOUT COTTO AND CUTS

Hey Doug,
I think you’re missing a point on the "what if he gets cut" issue on the Pacquiao-Cotto fight. Cotto had his worst cuts in the Clottey fight and I thought I saw him have seconnd thoughts when Clottey was jabbing his face. Cotto’s been cut before, but that last cut was the worst one, it was streaming into his vision. And I commend him for fighting through it.

I thought Cotto won the Clottey fight not because of him being himself, he won that fight because Clottey didn't take advantage of Cotto's problem that time.

Pacquiao's cut was always at its worse when it happened, but not once did quit. Take note on the first Morales fight, the referee asked him if he wanted to quit the fight. Pacquiao shook his head heavily, though that cut was grotesque. His cut against Marquez the second time around was a cut inside his eyelid, and we all know what happened in that fight. He still fought, he may not have beaten Marquez convincingly (I thought Marquez won that fight) but he won.

Your assessment on "Why Cotto would win" is much more comprehensive including the "What ifs,” so I'm thinking your pick is Cotto. My pick is Pacquiao, solely on the look of their sparring partners. I'm not sure Cotto's getting a serious work from his sparring partners compared to the Pacman's.

I hope this email makes it into your mailbag. Thanks! -- Richard Lopez-Pozas, Manila, Philippines

You made it, Richard, and I’m glad to have ya.

Don’t be so sure that I’m picking Cotto just because I presented a sound argument on why/how he can win the fight in my Monday column. I’m good at playing the Devil’s Advocate.

Let’s be very clear on something: I did not write that Pacquiao is a "quitter" or that he considered quitting in the fights that he sustained cuts. I said he looked like he didn’t want to be there, and I’ll stand by that observation. Pacquiao’s a warrior and he ultimately behaved like a fighter in those three very tough fights versus Sanchez, Morales and Marquez. However, there were moments in each of those bouts -- and I recall them as clear as day -- when Pacquiao was frustrated and out of sorts. Each time he was cut, he became hyper-emotional. He reacted one of two ways, he either lashed out in reckless fashion (and got countered by his veteran antagonists) or he backed up in a defensive shell.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Pacquiao went 1-1-1 (with his one victory a controversial split decision) in the fights where he suffered nasty cuts.

I agree that Cotto was bothered by the blood that poured into his left eye for nine rounds versus Clottey (he repeatedly wiped face with his gloves during the fight and switched from an aggressive fight to a stick-and-move game), but the difference between the Puerto Rican star and Pacquiao is that Cotto kept his head.

HAYE AND THE HARD PICK

Hi Dougie,
This is a bit late because I don't have the internet at home right now since I've just moved (had to wait until I got to the office!) So I've missed Monday's Mailbag, hopefully I'll make the midweek bag.

I've been a huge fan of Haye since I first saw him fight at York Hall when I was younger and he was actually one of the reasons I got into boxing. I went along to the fight with family, knowing nothing about fighting and enjoyed his demolition so much I started following him and with that came a following of boxing in general.

Anyway, I was incredibly happy when I he finally lifted the title. I think he is a fantastic and exciting fighter, although it was a close fight (I had it 115-113 for Haye). The problem was that Valuev didn't really land anything. Haye was too quick for him, although Haye didn't seem to throw enough punches. I think if he let his hands go a bit he could've got a shutout. He was just so fast.

And to see him rock Valuev at the end just shows he has the power that so many people have doubted he'd carry up to heavyweight. That wasn't even a clean shot!

Anyway, have you changed your opinion on him now? I know that you didn't rate Haye much. He didn't fight enough top fighters at cruiserweight, he jumped the queue to get his shot at heavyweight, he's brash, his technique is flawed, so many reasons I've seen you list.

I mean Haye really struggled to make cruiserweight and did what he intended to do, unify the division then move up to heavyweight. Haye's a smart guy with a smart plan, he's an exciting fighter who isn't hanging around. He's said he wants to retire at 31, he doesn't want to keep going. Obviously he has a plan and his own promotion company to make a big enough name for himself, give it momentum and go from there.

Basically he's doing what Mayweather is trying to do, but he's doing it the right way, i.e. gaining fans through fighting the best. I can't knock the guy.

Also his technique is massively underrated, he's got a good amateur pedigree and I think the reason he gets away with his style of fighting is because he is so talented. Regardless, the man can absolutely bang so I don't think it matters. Honestly, I don't think there's a heavyweight out there aside from Vitali that would survive a flush Haye shot on the chin!

Anyway, I'm waffling... Pacquiao-Cotto... MAN IS THIS HARD TO PREDICT! My head is saying Cotto will be too big, too strong and have too much savvy for Pac-Man. I can just imagine Cotto walking Pacquiao to the ropes and if he gets him there it is game over. Cotto will smash him to bits and Pacquiao just can't fight off the ropes... But then my heart says look how good Pacquiao has been in his last few fights.

This man has no limits!

Still, I think I'm gonna go with Cotto via a late stoppage. I just think eventually Cotto will get him against the ropes and when he does those body shots are gonna kill the Pinoy King!

Hope to hear back from you, my man! Always a pleasure to read your articles and mailbags. Kind Regards. -- Marcus B., London,

I also scored the Valuev-Haye fight 115-113 for the former cruiserweight king for the reasons you pointed out -- Haye could land the few shots he launched while the giant was pretty much rendered impudent by the smaller man‘s speed and movement.

The Valuev victory has changed my opinion on Haye. I consider him to be a legit heavyweight contender now and I have more confidence in his boxing ability and stamina than I did before he took on the giant.

I don’t consider him to be the world-beater at heavyweight that you do, but I’ll at least give him a shot against other top big men now (though not the Klitschkos).

Man, I can’t believe how many fans are picking Cotto by KO or TKO (or by Pacquiao quitting). Where are you Pac-Fans!? I think it’s time to make some noise. The hardcore heads are doubting your hero.

OUR MAN HAYE

Hi Dougie,
Quick point about our man David Haye, regardless of what you think of his promotional activities there was defiantly a buzz here in the UK around fight week. For the first time in a long time Joe public was interested in boxing. It has a carry on effect though, I’m a boxing freak and I’ll watch pretty much anything, but it was interesting to have people who I know aren’t boxing fans telling me that there is ‘another’ fight on this week with that ‘Pacquiao lad’ and asking my opinion. The simple equation is that good fights bring new fans and it’s great to see.

On the Pacquio Cotto fight, I can see a late stoppage win for Cotto, I think Manny may be in over his head on this one.

Keep up the great work. -- David, Liverpool, UK

If your man Haye is making new boxing fans I’m more than happy to get behind him. If he takes on fellow exciting big men like Chris Arreola and Tomasz Adamek I’ll become a Haye fan (whether he wins or loses those scraps).

Here we go again with the late TKO prediction for Cotto. (And from another Brit… hey you guys aren’t still mad the Pac-Monster decapitated Ricky, are you?)

OK, seriously. If you’re picking Pacquiao you need to let me know before the FAT Friday Mailbag.


Dougie can be reached at dougiefischer@yahoo.com