Dougie’s Monday mailbag

Jun

PACQUIAO-HORN

Doug, hi,

It’s a quiet ish weekend boxing in boxing, almost the first I can recall this year, if you throw in all the good U.K. action. So I watched everything about Jeff Horn I could find. He’s pretty good — better than I was thinking. Pacquiao will have to be having a very off night for Horn to trouble him, but I start to wonder if Horn wouldn’t be very live against Vargas, Matthysse, or Collazo. What do you think of Horn against any of these guys? How do you see this fight going? If he gives Pacman at least a hell of a run, does he get another big fight from this?

And, I’m really glad WarVolev is (mostly) behind us now. We can safely say (or least I am) that however flawed, messy, false-started and misjudged it all was, Ward won in the end. I observe this with no particular liking for Ward after the first fight. I liked him fine after Kessler & Froch: that was beautiful. Now I’d like to see him fight Stevenson and move up to cruiser and beat any of those champions except Bellew, who after all is 1-1 with Cleverly, who Kovalev destroyed in four. If he beats Gassiev or Usyk then I will sing his praises to the high heavens where he says he comes from.

Thanks again for the mailbag. You rock. – Alec, from Virginia

Thanks Alec.

If Ward can beat Oleksandr Usyk or Murat Gassiev I’ll join the S.O.G. fan club and gladly pay back dues. But given how often Sergey Kovalev was able to find him I think a move to the 200-pound division for a world title in a third weight class is a dangerous move. Major props to Dre if he chooses to challenge himself in this manner, but I would be concerned about his health if he did so.

Sign me up for Ward-Stevenson, though. And if Ward decides to stick around at 175 pounds next year, I’d love to see him pit his experience and tenacity against Oleksandr Gvozdyk’s youth and skills.

Regarding your thoughts on Ward vs. Carl Froch and Mikkel Kessler, I was ringside for the Kessler fight (Dre’s first title bout in November 2009) and unless the definition for “beautiful” has radically changed (and maybe it has within the sport of boxing), that was NOT a beautiful fight or performance. It was an extremely effective performance from Ward at his athletic peak. His jab, timing, counter-punching, switch-hitting and control of distance was masterful, and it was impressive given Kessler’s accomplishments and stature within the sport, but there was too much lunging in (by Ward), headbutts (because Ward came in with his head) and holding (both super middleweights were at fault for this, but Ward usually initiated it) for the fight to be considered “clean” let alone “beautiful.”

So I watched everything about Jeff Horn I could find. He’s pretty good — better than I was thinking. I think Horn can fight. He’s not special in terms of natural talent or athletic ability but he’s a strong welterweight with solid technique and balance. He’s not very fast but he’s got decent hand speed (in part because he knows how to relax, so his punches flow well) and while I wouldn’t categorize him as a “puncher” I think he can crack with this right hand (which he times well).

Pacquiao will have to be having a very off night for Horn to trouble him, but I start to wonder if Horn wouldn’t be very live against Vargas, Matthysse, or Collazo. I think he would give them all a good fight, but I would favor all three to beat him.

How do you see this fight going? I think Pacquiao outclasses the game Aussie over the distance in an entertaining fight.

If he gives Pacman at least a hell of a run, does he get another big fight from this? I think so. There will be a large American audience watching him thanks to ESPN and if he shows a lot of heart and is able to trouble Pacquiao a little, fans will want to see him in with other welterweight standouts.

THE CANELO-GGG MATCHUP

Hey Doug,

Huge fan of your work, really. You’re the best boxing analyst on the market. And I appreciate that you are always honest about your personal tastes.

I’m a huge Canelo Alvarez fan. I also love Gennady Golovkin. Now, it seems we’re getting lost in the promotional build up. Lots of people say it’s a 50/50 fight. It seems to me it is not, and it’s the result of savant matchmaking from Golden Boy.

I’m impressed by what Canelo has accomplished, granted. But I think, ala Mayweather, there’s a lot of it that comes from the opponents they chose. Yes, Floyd, Cotto and Mosley are names. But he lost against Floyd (who almost humiliated him in spite of the size), Mosley was shot and Cotto was a good smaller man. My point is, Canelo has everything to be great but isn’t yet, yet he thinks he is and keeps saying he has nothing to prove which is ridiculous. If you wanna be a legend, you have everything to prove, and when your best wins are against older guys who are 10 to 15 pounds lighter than you, you have everything to prove.

On the other hand, GGG lacks names on his resume. But he fought the best guys available in my opinion.

I just don’t understand what’s going on. One year ago, people saw the fight as a 75/25 in favor of Triple G. Now they seem to say it’s a 50/50, and some of them even favor Canelo.

I hear a lot of people talking about the Jacobs fight as an example of GGG stepping back, but I don’t think they realize the caliber of Danny. He’s clearly the 2nd best MW.

I mean, right now, would you favor Canelo against the 6-foot Jacobs we saw against Golovkin?

Golovkin won a fight against a huge guy, around 180 pounds (I rewatched the fight and he looks like a LHW) who’s a great boxer with crazy power and who had just blazed out a very strong and solid fighter in Peter Quillin. Since his rather close fight against Cotto, Canelo won against Khan, Smith and a dead man named Chavez. Yet people think he can beat GGG. I just don’t see how. I’ve thought it through, I’ve rewatched everything, I just don’t see how it’s possible for Canelo to beat Golovkin. I would really need your opinion about this, without taking into account everything that is said by everyone around. Just your gut feeling. The eye test. The skills. In my opinion to beat GGG you have to be a 180-pound version of Rigondeaux kind of. A guy with an amazing defense who would move around and score. A 3 times better version of Jacobs. You need amazing footwork, to be elusive, etc…

Canelo has an OK footwork, maybe less. He has a great instinct, accuracy, amazing combinations, very good body work and is a great counter puncher.

He’s gonna land, but he’s gonna get hit, constantly, to the body, with a real pressure against him, against a guy who has maybe one of the best chin in history. And I don’t think his power will be as efficient as it appears. To me, Canelo kinda traps people with his flashiness. He’s flashy and impressive, but in pure efficiency, I don’t think he’s as much of a puncher as his record and promoters make us believe. He has strong power but I’m sure a lot of MW can take it, and some strong JMW.

(It really looks like I’m not a fan, but he’s actually one of my favorite haha).

Also, can you give me your thoughts about Quillin? I thought he could have been really strong at some point. And what about Frankie Gomez? The kid had talent. And have you heard of Michel Soro from France?

(Ps: Sorry for the confusion, English is not my first language) – Diego H.

There’s no confusion at all, Diego. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and thanks for the very kind words.

I have heard of Soro. I’ve seen at least three of his fights and even had an opportunity to watch him train when he was with Virgil Hunter (during Amir Khan’s camp for Canelo last year). I think Soro is one of the best junior middleweights in the game. Last I heard, he was training with Abel Sanchez at The Summit gym in Big Bear, California. Soro’s next fight is this Saturday in France. If he wins, I hope he can land a fight with one of the top 154 pounders.

Regarding Quillin and Gomez – out of sight, out of mind.

Photo courtesy of Matchroom Boxing

Regarding the sudden outpouring of confidence from fans and media that give Canelo a good shot of upsetting Golovkin, I think it’s due to a number of factors. I think the sight of Kell Brook putting hands upside GGG’s head (and marking up the middleweight monster’s face – without getting knocked down in return) made the unified beltholder look human, along with going the 12-round distance for the first time against Jacobs in a somewhat pedestrian performance. Also, Canelo looked very good, physically speaking, and very sharp in terms of his technique against Chavez Jr. (and even though Junior was a Zombie, most fans are no longer looking at Alvarez as a 154 pounder). And finally, you should know that Golovkin has his share of haters, and that a significant percentage of these detractors happen to worship the ground Mayweather walks on, and in their very tiny minds if Canelo beats GGG it will count as a “victory” for their self-proclaimed #TBE demigod.

So yeah, there’s a healthy amount of wishful thinking in picking Canelo to beat Golovkin. But one thing is certain, the close official odds for Canelo-GGG is proof that Oscar & Company did the right thing by holding off on the showdown until this September. It’s much easier to promote a fight that is viewed as an even matchup than it is to push a perceived mismatch.

I’m impressed by what Canelo has accomplished, granted. But I think, ala Mayweather, there’s a lot of it that comes from the opponents they chose. Yes, Floyd, Cotto and Mosley are names. True, but Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara – two top-notch junior middleweights at the time that Canelo fought them – were not “names,” and they weren’t old or undersized, either.

Photo Credit: Tom Hogan Photography/Golden Boy Promotions

Canelo has everything to be great but isn’t yet, yet he thinks he is and keeps saying he has nothing to prove which is ridiculous. He may say that he’s got nothing to prove, but he obviously wants to be considered a great fighter before he hangs up his gloves, otherwise he wouldn’t be fighting a major f__king badass like GGG.

On the other hand, GGG lacks names on his resume. But he fought the best guys available in my opinion. Golvokin is the far more accomplished middleweight; Canelo has the better resume (so far).

I just don’t understand what’s going on. One year ago, people saw the fight as a 75/25 in favor of Triple G. Now they seem to say it’s a 50/50, and some of them even favor Canelo. A lot can change in one year in boxing. Bottom line: Most folks didn’t believe Canelo was ready for Golovkin a year ago. Now there are many who do.

I hear a lot of people talking about the Jacobs fight as an example of GGG stepping back, but I don’t think they realize the caliber of Danny. He’s clearly the 2nd best MW. I agree.

I mean, right now, would you favor Canelo against the 6-foot Jacobs we saw against Golovkin? Nope, but styles make fights.

I’ve thought it through, I’ve rewatched everything, I just don’t see how it’s possible for Canelo to beat Golovkin. That’s OK. Put some money down on the man from Kazakhstan.

I would really need your opinion about this, without taking into account everything that is said by everyone around. Just your gut feeling. The eye test. The skills. OK, but my gut and eyes have not been very reliable lately – they had me picking Brook to beat Errol Spence Jr. and Kovalev outpointing Ward (again).

In my opinion to beat GGG you have to be a 180-pound version of Rigondeaux kind of. A guy with an amazing defense who would move around and score. A 3 times better version of Jacobs. You need amazing footwork, to be elusive, etc… I don’t agree. I don’t think a fighter has to necessarily move all around the ring to beat Golovkin. Jacobs could have legitimately beat GGG had he planted his feet more in March. I think to really defeat Golovkin, one has to stand his ground and do some damage (at least in spots). Combine the offense-in-the-pocket of Brook (and even what Willie Monroe Jr. did when he engaged GGG in the pocket for a couple rounds) with the stick-and-move game of Jacobs and maybe that’s a winning combination against Golovkin.

Canelo has an OK footwork, maybe less. He has a great instinct, accuracy, amazing combinations, very good body work and is a great counter puncher. You left out an integral ability of Canelo’s – head- and upper-body movement.

He’s gonna land, but he’s gonna get hit, constantly, to the body, with a real pressure against him, against a guy who has maybe one of the best chin in history. Canelo may not get hit as much as you think he will. And he’s going to be aiming for the body, too, which might be a key to breaking down Golovkin (or at least earning respect).

And I don’t think his power will be as efficient as it appears. To me, Canelo kinda traps people with his flashiness. Flashy can be a good thing in boxing (just ask Sugar Ray Leonard after his hard 12 rounds against Marvin Hagler). Maybe Canelo’s plan isn’t to overpower GGG.

I would have loved to see Canelo against a strong puncher with fewer skills first, like Lemieux, then a hungry lion like Charlo and maybe a Jacobs fight. If he beats them all, then I would have thought a GGG fight was a 50/50. First of all, I don’t think Canelo could walk that gauntlet without catching at least one “L,” and in this sad era of “fan-agers” two losses – even if it comes against elite competition – means that fighter is “done” (or needs to fire everybody on his team and start completely over). Second, if Canelo fought ANYBODY other than Golovkin in September the entire boxing world would have thrown a collective hissy fit and threaten to stage “Golden-Boycotts” against that fight and all future GBP shows.

THE NEXT BIG FIGHT

Hello Doug,

Thanks for posting and responding to my email and comparing Ward and Floyd. I really learned from your comparison of their resumes.

My question is about the next big fight. Canelo vs Golovkin.

I believe Golovkin cannot afford to lose. If Canelo wins, everyone will assume Golovkin has been fighting bums – up until Daniel Jacobs. Golovkin’s record will be put under a thorough microscope, and it may end his HoF aspirations – to some persons.

What’s your take on it?

The “Superfly” card is also going to be super interesting. Wish I could be in the US for that.

I think Chocolatito is having Broner problems. 112 (140) is too small for him, but 115 (147) is too big. Chocolatito’s seek and destroy style also will wear his body down faster now that he’s fighting bigger guys.

Do you think Chocolatito can modify his style at this stage of his career to something like Ward/Hopkins/Floyd, cos I don’t see him being a champion for long at 115. Thanks. – Tofunmi from Lagos, Nigeria

I don’t either. There’s a lot of wear and tear on Gonzalez’s little body. The 47-bout veteran will have been fighting at the championship level for nine years by September.

Photo: Naoki Fukuda

And I don’t think he can “modify” his style at this late stage of his career. Chocolatito is what he is, and I love him for it.

I think Chocolatito is having Broner problems. 112 (140) is too small for him, but 115 (147) is too big. So? All that means is that he’s got dig deep and fight his ass off against every time he’s in the ring with a top junior bantamweight – fans win!

Chocolatito’s seek and destroy style also will wear his body down faster now that he’s fighting bigger guys. Indeed. That’s why I never hesitate to give the four-division champ his deserved respect.

Thanks for posting and responding to my email and comparing Ward and Floyd. You are most welcome. I get a real kick out of getting emails from boxing fans from different parts of the world.

I really learned from your comparison of their resumes. Learning is what it’s all about. Just keep in mind that it was just one man’s opinion.

I believe Golovkin cannot afford to lose. That’s pretty much the case with every fighter these days.

If Canelo wins, everyone will assume Golovkin has been fighting bums – up until Daniel Jacobs. No doubt about it.

Golovkin’s record will be put under a thorough microscope, and it may end his HoF aspirations – to some persons. Perhaps. But how many of those “persons” do you think receive a ballot from the International Boxing Hall of Fame?

CANELO-GGG TICKET PRICES

Hey Doug,

Hope everything’s well with you and your family. I was looking at the ticket prices for Canelo-GGG and was blown away by the rates. How the hell is a normal fan able to attend one of these events? Are they trying to alienate their fan base? I was looking at a 2500 ticket, convenience charge alone is almost 250 bucks! That’s 100 bucks more than I paid for a ticket for Randall-Chavez I!

This, Mayweather-McGregor and controversial calls like last weekend makes me wonder if boxing’s lucky comeback will last.

Hopefully, white-collar executives start listening to us, the fans, the ones who actually let this happen, maybe that will give them a clue of what we actually want. Thanks Doug. – Juan Valverde

“White-collar executives,” such as the men and women representing MGM Grand properties and the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, are never going to listen to boxing fans. Their allegiance is to the company, not fans. It’s up to boxing promoters to give fans what they want.

I think Golden Boy (and K2 Promotions) gave fans what they wanted by making Canelo-GGG, but they also gave themselves what they need (financial security) by placing the fight in Las Vegas.

How the hell is a normal fan able to attend one of these events? Normal fans generally don’t attend these type of events. If they want to see it live, they buy the pay-per-view show or a ticket to a closed-circuit venue or theater. Placing this fight at T-Mobile Arena kind of reminds me when De La Hoya-Trinidad landed at the Mandalay Bay (which seats just over 13,000 for boxing) – the tickets weren’t even made public for the 1999 welterweight showdown.

Are they trying to alienate their fan base? No, but they certainly aren’t putting the fans first.

I was looking at a 2500 ticket, convenience charge alone is almost 250 bucks! That’s 100 bucks more than I paid for a ticket for Randall-Chavez I! And fans had the audacity to rip Don King back in the day…. I bet the “longtimers” like you miss His Royal Hairness now, eh? Don gave fans bang for their buck, didn’t he? But seriously, you were actually considering buying a $2,500 ticket!? Damn! How much money were you willing to spend in Vegas for that weekend? $5,000? $10,000? Good thing you don’t gamble, bro.

This, Mayweather-McGregor and controversial calls like last weekend makes me wonder if boxing’s lucky comeback will last. It will last, as long as good matchups continue to be made and quality boxing cards that ARE affordable – such as the July 15 and Sept. 9 tripleheaders, Broner-Garcia and Easter-Shafikov – are put in the right locations. (I’m pretty sure the Guerrero-Figueroa and Cotto-Kamegai cards – while not headlined by the most appetizing matchups – are priced appropriately.)

DAMN IT, DEONTAY

my favorite HW just turned down a $3 mil. fight with dillon whyte and threw a twitter tantrum. i gotta say I’m real disappointed. turned down $3 mil. to make a big splash in the UK and face a top-ten fighter for only the second time.

damn man. what a letdown. – Ceylon

Never fall in love with a boxer, Ceylon. That’s rule No. 1.

Never have high expectations for a PBC Player. That’s rule No. 2.

Curb your enthusiasm with any weight class above featherweight (unless it’s cruiserweight). That’s rule No. 3.

RANDON BOXING QUESTIONS

Hey Doug,

What’s up? It’s been a while since my last mail. I just want to know your thoughts on these topics.

Is Andre Ward’s resume better than Manny Pacquiao after his victory against Kovalev?
Other than Ward and Pacquiao, who has the best resume in boxing?
Who’s the current best featherweight who does not hold a major belt? and how do you think he’d match up with the top dogs in the division.
What adjustments would you expect to see in Chocolatito against Sor Rungvisai in their upcoming rematch?

MM:

Rafael Ruelas vs Diego Corrales @ 135

Antonio Cervantes vs Terrence Crawford @ 140

Gerry Penalosa vs Wisaksil Wangek @ 115

Ike Quartey vs Errol Spence @ 147

As always, keep up the good work Dougie. God bless you! – Yves

Thank you for the blessing (and for keeping your email brief).

Is Andre Ward’s resume better than Manny Pacquiao after his victory against Kovalev? I examined this question in-depth in last Friday’s mailbag (but to be quite honest it boggles my mind that fans think Ward’s body of work even comes close to Mayweather’s).

Other than Ward and Pacquiao, who has the best resume in boxing? Probably Roman Gonzalez (whose ledger is stronger than Ward’s in my opinion).

Who’s the current best featherweight who does not hold a major belt? and how do you think he’d match up with the top dogs in the division. Carl Frampton. On a good night I think he can beat all of the current beltholders. Joseph Diaz Jr. and Scott Quigg are also very good 126 pounders who currently do not hold major world titles.

What adjustments would you expect to see in Chocolatito against Sor Rungvisai in their upcoming rematch? Nothing major, I expect him to be a little more focused and careful in the opening rounds (just to avoid getting clipped or butted), but I think once Gonzalez gets warmed up (probably by Round 3 or 4) he’ll settle into be the relentless volume-punching pressure fighter that we all know and love.

Your mythical matchups:

Rafael Ruelas vs Diego Corrales @ 135 – Corrales by late stoppage in a war.

Antonio Cervantes vs Terrence Crawford @ 140 – Cervantes by close but unanimous decision in a good, brisk boxing match.

Gerry Penalosa vs Wisaksil Wangek @ 115 – Penalosa by hard-fought but clear decision (unless it takes place in Thailand, in which case he’d have to settle for a majority or split nod) in a very good scrap.

Ike Quartey vs Errol Spence @ 147 – Quartey by close, perhaps split decision in an entertaining display of power boxing by both welterweights.

MAILBAG IS FAKE NEWS!

On Floyd matchmaking: “better names were well past their primes (notably ODLH and Mosley)”.

Luv ya, never change!

Shane was welter lineal, WBA-147 champ and Ring Mag P4P#3 to Floyd’s #2. If Shane had KO’d him in rd2 you’d still be on your knees deep-throating Shane, right? Instead, Floyd recovered, dominated, f__ked up your night and Shane became “way past prime”. We went over this.

ODLH was WBC-154 champ when Floyd went to 154 for the first time to get him. Floyd won a close fight and Oscar became “way past prime”… until he fought Pacquiao at 147 over a year later in what became one of Pacquiao’s legendary victories over the no longer “way past prime”, suddenly great again ODLH! See how that worked, Dougie?

Never change! – Tony

I won’t. You’re obviously never gonna change. You’re still the biggest Floyd-hugger who just can’t quit the mailbag. Keep fighting the bad fight, my brotha!

Anyway, I don’t give a rat’s ass what titles or rankings De La Hoya or Mosley held at the time they fought Mayweather, I’m not going to pretend that Oscar was at his best in 2007 or that Shane was on top of his game in 2010.

Oscar De La Hoya poses with the great Pernell Whitaker before their fight in 1997. According to Floyd-huggin’ Tony, De La Hoya was not past his prime in 2007, so I guess that means The Golden Boy was still a PROSPECT when he faced Pea!

If you know anything about boxing, you know that De La Hoya was at his peak when he was fighting the likes of Julio Cesar Chavez and Pernell Whitaker in 1996 and 1997. If you have any semblance of boxing knowledge you know that Mosley was at his apex when he outpointed De La Hoya and then obliterated the relentless Antonio Diaz in 2000.

So your boy Floyd faced these fellow future hall of famers AT LEAST TEN years after their respective peaks. But I’ll make a deal with you and all the other Money Team Mooks out there – I’ll agree with you that De La Hoya and Mosley were still in their primes if you nitwits agree to recognize Chavez and Whitaker as still being in their primes when De La Hoya fought them.

Because if Oscar and Shane weren’t past their primes when Mayweather fought them, then Julio (who was the reigning WBC 140-pound titleholder at the time De La Hoya dominated him) and Pernell (who was the reigning WBC welterweight champ – with eight title defenses under his belt – AND consensus No. 1 in the pound-for-pound rankings when The Golden Boy challenged him) weren’t “old.”

And if Oscar has the “prime” scalps of Chavez and Whitaker – two legit all-time greats – on his resume, I think you have to admit that he’s got a better overall resume than your boy Floyd.

Are you and the other TBE pom-poms wavers ready to do that?

Didn’t think so.

Email Fischer at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter (at @dougiefischer), Instagram and on Periscope.